Trend of Natural Gas and LNG Prices

Short-term trend

• In parallel with the collapse of crude oil prices, gas prices in different regions in the world have remained low. As of 25 June 2020, the US Henry Hub Price (HH), Dutch Gas Price (TTF), UK Gas Price (NBP) are at the lowest levels of less than USD 2 per million Btu. Some LNG cargoes have been sent to the United States during the past few weeks because the HH price has been mostly higher than European gas prices.
• The Assessed Spot LNG Price for Northeast Asia (JKM) for delivery in the next month has hovered at around USD 2 per million Btu since late May. JKM recovered to above USD 2 in early May because some LNG cargoes from the United States had been cancelled and LNG demand was expected to recover in some countries that had eased lockdown measures, but as of June 25, JKM is still at a record low of USD 2.1. JKM is expected to rise with lockdown measures easing and economic activities recovering in some areas in Asian countries. The average spot LNG prices published by METI was USD 2.6 for May delivery (USD 0.4 lower than April 2020).
• While the Henry Hub price for delivery in next month went down by USD 0.25 in May 2020 to USD 1.70 at the end of the month. It has been below USD 2 since 20 January except for USD 2.13 on 2 May. Although associated gas production volumes from oil-oriented shale acreage are expected to decline with the collapse of oil prices, decline of domestic gas demand with the spread of the pandemic and decreasing LNG export volumes with cancellation of cargoes have led to lower prices compared to early May. However, the HH price has been mostly more expensive than European prices. Meanwhile, the TTF price for delivery in the next month went down by USD 0.55 in May 2020 to USD 1.43 equivalent at the end of the month. The TTF price has been below USD 2 since late April, and on 28 May it fell to USD 1.13 equivalent, the lowest price in the past decade. As the lockdown measures have been gradually relaxed since early June and economic activities are expected to recover in some European countries, with gas prices rising sharply and the phenomenon of the TTF falling below HH being eliminated.
• Japan's average LNG import price of USD 9.45 in May 2020 was 3.4 times as high as JKM for delivery in May 2020 (assessed between mid-March 2020 and mid-April 2020) at USD 2.80. The gap was higher than 3.0 of April. The average landed prices of LNG to Japan from the United States and ASEAN in May were USD 8.52 and USD 8.92 respectively to undercut the overall average of USD 9.45. Most of long-term contract prices to buy LNG in Japan link to oil index except for LNG from the United States, therefore, the collapse of international crude oil prices, especially after 9 March, is expected to affect long-term contract LNG prices. The average crude oil import price in Japan for April and May was USD 42 and USD 25 per barrel respectively, down from the previous month. As the crude oil prices imported into Japan are generally reflected in LNG contract prices three months later, the lower LNG prices are expected from July. Meanwhile, Japan imported 4.58 million tonnes of LNG in May 2020, 17.7% less than one year ago, and the lowest since 4.233 million tonnes in May 2009.

Mid- to long-term trend

• During the last 10 years, Japan's average LNG import price fell from the peak in USD 18s in 2012, largely due to the downward trend in crude oil prices, to which long-term contract LNG prices are pegged. Except in August 2019, when it rose to USD 10.13, the average price has since April 2019 largely stayed below USD 10. With the collapse of crude oil prices after March 2020, Japan's average LNG import price is expected to further go down.
• After JKM for delivery from November 2019 to January 2020 briefly stayed at around USD 6, JKM declined dramatically to below USD 2 in late April for June 2020 delivery. This is a remarkable decline to a historically low level. JKM, which in recent years moved in the range between European spot gas prices at the lower end and crude oil equivalent at the higher end, have stayed near the lower end since 2019. In addition, since June 2019 the JKM has largely been at the historic lows.
• Japan's average LNG import price has been more than 1.6 times higher than the average JKM for delivery in each month (assessed between one-and-half and half-a-month prior to delivery) since the second quarter of the year, and was more than two times higher than the JKM from July to October 2019 and March and April 2020, and was further more than three times higher in May 2020. representing the largest relative gap between the two since 2011. This seems to be due to ongoing massive LNG supply capacity expansions mainly from the United States, weaker appetite for LNG in Asia, particularly Japan and Korea from the traditional LNG markets in Northeast Asia, and uncertainty of gas demand amid COVID-19 spread. Combined LNG imports by Japan, Korea and Chinese Taipei during  the first five months of 2020 increased year-on-year by only 0.3%, or 0.19 million tonnes, although they were still smaller by 9.0%, or 5.59 million tonnes than those during the same months in 2018 and remain weak. In a stark contrast, China's LNG import in May was larger than Japan - at 5.23 million tonnes - for the second time in the history following the first such instance in November 2019. China imported 25.48 million tonnes of LNG during the first five months of 2020, increasing year-on-year by 7.0%.

Trend of Natural Gas and LNG Inventories

Japan

• Japan's LNG inventory as of the end of February 2020 stood at 4.45 million tonnes, a decrease by 0.5% from the preceding month and an increase by 2.5% from one year earlier. It was 0.88 million tonnes higher than the last five-year average and was the highest in February since the start of statistics in 2008. LNG consumption for city-gas stood at 3.01 million tonnes, decreasing by 7.8% month-on-month in February 2020, and exceeded 2.92 million tonnes received by city-gas companies by 0.09 million tonnes. As a result, the LNG inventory for city-gas supply in the month was 1.89 million tonnes, 7.6% lower than January 2020 and 8.6% lower than February 2019. The LNG inventory for power generation fuel in February 2020 was 2.56 million tonnes, increasing by 5.5% from January 2020 and 12.5% higher than February 2019, as gas-fired power generation output by incumbent electric power companies decreased by 9.8% month-on-month in February 2020. At the end of February, the voluntary restraint of activities by citizens and adjustment in industrial production caused by COVID-19 were not considered to have a significant impact on LNG consumption yet. As the weather data of Japan Meteorological Agency indicates the highest average temperature for the month of February during the last ten years in metropolitan areas including Tokyo and Osaka the higher LNG inventory was likely to be caused by lower heating energy demand.
• Domestic LNG inventories over the past decade have been on an increasing trend. Due to the restart of nuclear power plants and the increase in renewable energy, LNG imports and consumption decreased from the peak in FY2014, and LNG inventory temporarily decreased. But it started to increase again in FY2018 and have been at record levels since the start of statistics. Nuclear power plant restarts and a decrease in heating and cooling energy demand seems to be the main cause of the increase in the inventories. However, as imported LNG without destination clauses from the United States and other countries has been gradually increasing, Japan's energy companies may not be only stockpiling LNG voluntarily for the stability of gas supply but also gradually using LNG terminals in Japan as a cushion for their trading activities.
• Japan's LNG inventory levels have been generally high relative to the country's LNG consumption levels, as the country is almost entirely dependent on imported LNG for its natural gas supply. In Europe and the United States, there are many underground gas storage facilities, LNG inventory levels are relatively low compared to Japan. Assuming that LNG cargoes heading to Japan are counted on, additional 1.5 million tonnes should be added to the inventory volumes.
• More than 60% of LNG is used by electric power companies, who also have different sources of power production and use LNG more or less as backup sources to adjust gaps or surplus of their total power generation. In recent years, operational performances of the country's nuclear power reactors, as well as increasing power supply from renewable energy sources, have dramatically changed the operation of LNG inventories. This is the one of the main reasons why the total inventory levels at the end of November 2018 and 2019 reached almost 5 million tonnes.

United States

• As of 19 June 2020, working gas in underground natural gas storage in the United States was 3,012 Bcf, a 15.3 % increase in one month, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gas inventories were 30.9 % or 711 Bcf higher than those at the same point in 2019, and were 466 Bcf higher than the past five-years average of 2,473 Bcf, but were still in the range for the past 5 years. However, the inventories have been increasing about two months faster than the average for the past five years. If this trend continues, the inventory limits may come significantly earlier than usual.     
• According to the Short-Term Energy Outlook released by the EIA in early June 2020, the EIA forecasts that the working natural gas in storage will increase by 2.1 Tcf during the refilling season from April and will reach 4.1 Tcf at the end of October 2020. This volume of inventories is down from last month's forecast, but still a record level.
• EIA measures working natural gas storage capacity in two ways: design capacity and demonstrated peak capacity. The design capacity of natural gas storage in 2019 was 4,693 Bcf, decreasing by 190 Bcf or 0.4% from the previous year, whilst the demonstrated peak working natural gas capacity was nearly flat but increased in the East region and Pacific region, increasing by 4,261 Bcf or 0.1% from the previous reporting period (from December 2013 through November 2018). Since the demonstrated peak working natural gas capacity is the total of different fields, the timings of the maximum volumes are not the same.
• The maximum inventory of working gas in underground natural gas storage in the United State over the past 10 years has been around 4 Tcf. However, according to the EIA database, natural gas production increased by more than 20%, natural gas consumption increased by more than 14%, and natural gas exports increased by more than 45% between 2017 and 2019 in the country, changing gas supply and demand dynamics dramatically. According to EIA, August 2019 held the record for the most natural gas consumed in the electric power sector in a single month and both electric-sector natural gas consumption and total natural gas consumption reached their highest-ever annual levels in 2019, hence this growing trend would generally encourage more storage capacity. In addition, increasing exports of natural gas also could create a need for additional natural gas storage capacity in the Gulf Coast region to support pipeline exports of natural gas to Mexico and LNG exports.
• Underground natural gas storage facilities in the country generally inject more gas in summer starting in April and send out more gas in winter starting in November. Those trends have been created by the need to use more gas in heating in winter and by commercial motivations to buy gas cheap in lower demand periods between April and October and sell at higher prices in winter peak demand periods. Those trends have in recent years, however, to some extent been moderated by increasing use of natural gas in power generation, particularly in summer peak periods, increasing LNG exports, and increasing gas exports by pipeline to Mexico, with the inventory peak declining in 2017 and 2018. In 2019, LNG storage volumes have increased as growth in domestic gas production has offset increasing consumption and exports.

Europe

• As of 17 June, 2020, the stored volume of natural gas in European underground storage facilities operated by the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory (AGSI +) member companies of the European Union (EU) was 850 TWh. The inventories were 12.2% higher than one month ago and 115 TWh or 5.7% higher than one year earlier, and 290 TWh higher than the five-year average. The stored volume represented 77% on 17 June 2020 of the working capacity, still staying significantly higher than the past five-year range of 44% - 70% at the time of the year. The pace of inventory growth is about one month faster than in 2019 when inventories were larger than usual, and about three months earlier than 2018. Therefore, gas storage facilities may be full considerably earlier than usual.
• As the storage capacity of European natural gas in the last 10 years increased by approximately 80% from 600 TWh to 1,100 TWh, the maximum of gas inventory has been increasing accordingly. The maximum stored volume from 2016 to 2018 was about 1,000 TWh. However, in 2019, due to the rapid increase in natural gas imports and the warm winter in Europe, gas inventory reached a record high of 1,084 TWh. The total gas inventory at the end of March 2020 (the minimum in the year) was approximately 600 TWh, comparable to the gas inventories in November 2011 (the maximum in the year).
• Those storage facilities generally inject more gas in summer starting in April and send out more gas in winter starting in November, with storage levels going up to 80% or more than 90% of the working capacity at the end of injection period. Storage levels go down to 20% - 30% at the end of the withdrawal period. However, in recent couple of years, fluctuations in stored volumes have increased partly because of extreme weather conditions as well as commercial motivations of shippers of those gas storage facilities. The extreme winter cold of early part of 2018 drove down the total storage level to 18% at the end of March that year. The flood of LNG volumes imported into the region starting from the latter half of 2018 has increased volumes in gas storage in summer and autumn 2019, to nearly full capacity. The occupancy rate continued being high even during the winter withdrawal season.

Latest Developments in Major Natural Gas and LNG Projects

Summary

• Amid continuing LNG export capacity expansion, represented by starting-up LNG export facilities in the United States, the Northeast Asian markets imported 68 million tonnes of LNG from January to April 2020, only up 3% year-on-year. Although the industry has heard that Myanmar has joined the LNG importer circle, it has not had enough of an impact to stimulate the current LNG market. In the midst of the market slump, there may have been cancellations of about 20 cargoes of US LNG for June delivery and 45 cargoes for July delivery, according to the EIA. As it has also been reported that the FID for the LNG project continues to be delayed, in June Tellurian delayed an FID on its Driftwood LNG project to 2021, the company said, following similar announcements in May by NextDecade on its Rio Grande LNG, and Canada's Pieridae on its Goldboro LNG projects.

 

Asia and Oceania

• Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) announced on 10 June 2020  that it would launch the "LNG bunkering dedicated ship construction support project". Construction of an LNG bunkering vessel with more than 7,500 m3 of LNG tank capacity will be supported.
• According to China's NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission), the country produced, imported, and consumed 63.27 Bcm, 44.62 Bcm, and 104.45 Bcm of natural gas during the first four months of 2020, increasing year-on-year by 9.3%, 1.5%, and only 3.3%, respectively.
• PetroChina, Shenzhen Yantian Port Group, and Shenzhen Gas entered an agreement to build China's first LNG bunkering point for international vessels able to supply vessels with 230,000 tonnes per year. The bunkering facility will be further expanded to supply 2 million tonnes per year in the future.
• Sinopec had signed an investment agreement with the government of Zhoushan city, in Zhejiang, China to build an LNG terminal, the city government announced. It plans to start operation in 2024.
• According to the data by PPAC (Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell of the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas), India's consumption and gross production of natural gas in April 2020 were 4.013 Bcm and 2.161 Bcm, decreasing year-on-year by 25% and 18.6%, respectively. LNG import in April 2020 was equivalent to 1.947 Bcm, down 29.4% year-on-year. While the country's natural gas production decreased by 10.5% during the first quarter of 2020, natural gas consumption and LNG import increased by 3.5% and 37%, respectively, during the same period.
• Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) on 15 June 2020 launched India's first online delivery-based gas trading platform - the Indian Gas Exchange (IGX). IGX will offer market products at three physical hubs at Dahej and Hazira in Gujarat and Odoru in Andhra Pradesh.
• Malaysia's PETRONAS announced that it had concluded a Sale and Purchase Agreement (SPA) with China's Tiger Clean Energy Limited (TCEL) for the supply of LNG to TCEL's LNG ISO Tank Filling Facility located at Bintulu, Sarawak. Delivery of the LNG to China will be undertaken by TCEL.
• Malaysia's PETRONAS announced on 4 June 2020 that it had completed its first delivery of two LNG cargoes to be transported to Yangon, Myanmar. The delivery is part of a Master Sale and Purchase Agreement between PLL and CNTIC VPower that was signed in early 2020. The cargoes were sold on FOB basis, amounting to a total LNG volume of 190,000 cubic metres. Both cargoes were loaded at PETRONAS LNG Complex in Bintulu, Sarawak, and were delivered on 7 May onboard the CNTIC VPower Global, and on 3 June onboard the Golar Kelvin. PETRONAS granted conditional acceptance to CNTIC VPower Global vessel in allowing for the first multilobe tank comprising two cylindrical tank sections, or better known as Bilobe type LNG vessel, to dock at the Bintulu terminal where cooling-down services were also provided.
• FueLNG, a joint venture between Keppel Offshore & Marine and Shell Eastern Petroleum, announced the launch of Singapore's first LNG bunkering vessel in Keppel Nantong Shipyard in China. The vessel was moved from land to water on 28 May. Construction of the 7,500 m3 LNG bunkering vessel is on schedule to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2020.
• Chevron's Gorgon LNG project was approved on the condition of capturing and storing (CCS) at least 80 per cent of the CO2 emitted from the gas field, however technical issues delayed the start-up of CCS to August 2019. At the end of May 2020, the Western Australia's environment ministry backed an Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) decision to backdate five-year reviews of CCS element to July 2016 when the first train began exports.
• Santos announced in late May that it had completed the acquisition of ConocoPhillips' northern Australia and Timor-Leste assets. Santos' interest in Bayu-Undan and Darwin LNG increases to 68.4%. Santos' interest in the Barossa project to backfill Darwin LNG increases to 62.5%. Santos had previously announced an agreement to sell a 25% interest in Darwin LNG and Bayu-Undan to SK E&S and the signing of a letter of intent (LOI) to sell a 12.5% interest in Barossa to JERA. The sales are subject to third-party consents, regulatory approvals and an FID decision on Barossa. Due to recent market volatility and the deferral of Barossa FID, Santos and ConocoPhillips agreed to decrease the previously announced US$1.39 billion upfront payment at completion to US$1.265 billion and increase the contingent payment on Barossa FID from US$75 million to US$200 million.
• Santos announced on 25 May that it had been awarded four new gas exploration permits in the Surat Basin east of Roma in Queensland. Two of the permits are for domestic-only supply and two could supply both domestic and LNG markets.
• Jemena submitted plans to the New South Wales Government to connect a proposed LNG import terminal at Port Kembla to the Eastern Gas Pipeline (EGP). The company also intends to modify EGP so it is bi-directional and can be used to flexibly transport gas between Sydney and Melbourne.

 

North America

• In June 2020 SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK, EIA (Energy Information Administration, United States) forecast that LNG exports would average 5.6 Bcf/d (11 million tonnes) in the second quarter of 2020 and 3.7 Bcf/d (7 million tonnes) in the third quarter of 2020, revising the forecast downward from the issue of the previous month.
• FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) on 12 June issued a notice of authorization to Elba Liquefaction and Southern LNG Companies to introduce feed gas to Moveable Modular Liquefaction System (MMLS) #9.
• FERC on 15 June issued a notice authorizing Venture Global Plaquemines LNG and Gator Express Pipeline to proceed with initial mobilization and limited site preparation.
• Golden Pass LNG, a joint venture of Qatar Petroleum and ExxonMobil, asked FERC on 21 May to increase the LNG production capacity by 2.5 million tonnes per year. The total capacity will rise to 18.1 million tonnes per year.
• In late May, Liquefied Natural Gas Limited (LNGL) entered a transaction under which it had sold its interests in subsidiary entities that own the Magnolia LNG project. In early June, Glenfarne Group, LLC, a developer, owner-operator and industrial manager of energy and infrastructure assets, announced that it had completed the acquisition of Magnolia LNG, through Glenfarne's newly formed subsidiary Magnolia LNG Holdings, LLC. The acquisition of Magnolia LNG increases Glenfarne's LNG export capacity to approximately 12 million tonnes per year, 4 million tonnes per year of which comes from Texas LNG Brownsville, LLC, a late-stage LNG export development project in Brownsville, Texas for which Alder Midstream, one of Glenfarne's two operating subsidiaries, is the majority owner and Managing Member.
• FERC on 21 May 2020 authorized the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation (AGDC) to liquefy and export LNG produced in the North Slope of the State of Alaska. The project would consist of liquefaction facilities on the Kenai Peninsula designed to produce up to 20 million tonnes per year of LNG.

 

Europe and Russia

• InfraStrata announced that it had entered into a term sheet with West Face Long Term Opportunities Global Master L.P. which is a hedge fund operated by West Face Capital Inc., conditional on final investment decision (FID), for the acquisition of Meridian Holdings Company, under which sits a proposed Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU) project in Barrow-in-Furness, northwest England. The proposed FSRU project will be the first to be developed and commercialised in the United Kingdom.
• Fluxys LNG is contemplating the option of creating up to 6 million tonnes per year of additional firm regasification capacity in Zeebrugge by the end of 2023. From summer 2020, the company plans to offer 1.7 million tonnes per year of additional capacity.
• A truck loading bay at the Dunkirk LNG terminal entered into service on 1 June with a loading capacity of 3,000 slots per year.
• Japan's MOL (Mitsui O.S.K. Lines) and Germany's Uniper subsidiary LTW (LNG Terminal Wilhelmshaven) signed a contract to build and charter an FSRU (Floating Storage and Regasification Unit) for the planned LNG terminal in Wilhelmshaven in Germany on the North Sea. The FSRU of 263,000 m3 storage capacity and 10 bcm sendout capability will be built by DSME (Daewoo Shipbuilding Marine Engineering) and then chartered by LTW for 20 years. GTT received an order from DSME for the design of the FSRU.
• PGNiG will be able to import 6.2 bcm in 2022 - 2023 and 8.3 bcm from 2024 onwards equivalent of LNG via the Świnoujście LNG terminal, as the terminal will be expanded. The new regasification capacity has been booked by the company for 17 years. PGNiG has 5 bcm of regasification capacity booked at the terminal at present.
• Algeria's SONATRACH announced the completion of a transaction with Spanish company CEPSA. SONATRACH increased its stake in Société Medgaz SA by 8.04%, from 42.96% to 51%. Medgaz SA operates the offshore gas pipeline directly connecting Algeria to Spain. Naturgy has the remaining 49%. The offshore pipeline has an annual transport capacity of 8.2 billion cubic meters, which will be increased during the first quarter of 2021 to 10.2 billion cubic meters by adding a 4th Turbo-Compressor at the Beni-Saf Compression Station in Algeria.
• LNG Hrvatska announced on 15 June that all free terminal capacity had been booked for the next 3 gas years (from October to September of the following year) . The company also noted that POWERGLOBE QATAR had booked capacity at the terminal from 2021 to 2035.
• Russia's Gazprom and RusKhimAlyans (the project operator of the integrated complex for natural gas processing and liquefaction; the company was established on a parity basis by Gazprom and RusGazDobycha) signed 20-year commercial contracts for supplies of feed gas and sales gas as part of the project for the creation of the Complex for processing ethane-containing gas (including an integrated complex for natural gas processing and liquefaction, as well as a gas chemical complex) in the Leningrad Region.. 45 bcm per year of ethane-containing natural gas will be supplied from Gazprom's fields to RusKhimAlyans. The 18 bcm per year of gas remaining after the processing (extraction of ethane fraction and other valuable components) and production of LNG will go into the Gazprom's gas transmission system. Another contract was signed between RusKhimAlyans and Baltic Chemical Complex (a wholly-owned subsidiary of RusGazDobycha) to supply ethane fraction for further processing. RusKhimAlyans entered into an EPC contract with NIPIGAZ (part of the SIBUR Group) for a full cycle of operations to create gas processing and off-site facilities at the complex.
• Russia's NOVATEK announced that the Arc7 ice-class LNG tanker "Christophe de Margerie" of Sovcomflot transited the Eastbound ice-covered part of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and reached the Bering Strait in only 12 days. The voyage took place before the traditional start of the summer navigation season in average ice conditions, with the maximum ice thickness on the route reaching 1.3 meters. Eastbound transportation of LNG along the NSR is not normally performed in May as this represents one of the most difficult months for navigation.
• Korea's Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME) announced in early June that it had won an order to build two 360,000 m3 LNG barges for Russia's Novatek with an option for two additional units. The units will serve Novatek’s planned projects in Murmansk and Kamchatka that the company will develop with MOL. The units will transfer Yamal and Arctic 2 cargoes from ice-breaking LNG carriers to conventional ships. DSME expects to deliver the two barges by the end of 2022.

 

Other regions

• Qatar Petroleum entered into agreements to reserve LNG ship construction capacity with three shipbuilding companies in Korea to be utilized for Qatar Petroleum's future LNG carrier fleet requirements, including those for the ongoing expansion projects in the North Field and in the United States. Qatar Petroleum claimed that it had secured approximately 60% of the global LNG shipbuilding capacity through 2027, which could reach 100+ new vessels.
• Colon LNG Marketing and Tropigas Natural signed a deal to distribute LNG via trucks in Panama and Costa Rica from the AES-operated LNG import terminal in Colon, Panama.
• Gas Natural Açu (GNA) - a joint venture between BP, Siemens and private equity-backed Prumo Logistica - said on 12 June 2020 that the FSRU BW Magna was moored at the Açu LNG terminal in Brazil for GNA’s LNG-to-power project.