Trend of Natural Gas and LNG Prices
- The assessed spot LNG price for near-month delivery to Northeast Asia, JKM was in the high 40s per million Btu through early August. After reaching USD 51 on 11 August due to active trading toward winter by Japan and Korea, the price gradually rose to the USD 50s, reaching USD 61 on 22 August. While inventories in Japan and China were thin, JKM reached USD 71 on 25 and 29 August, fueled by soaring European gas prices. JKM's reversal with TTF continued, with a maximum price difference of USD 29 on 24 August.
- JOGMEC announced in its monthly report of spot LNG prices for delivery to Japan that the average price of spot LNG cargoes for delivery to Japan contracted in July 2022 and scheduled to be delivered from the month onward (contract-based price) was USD 32.8. The average price of spot LNG cargoes that were contracted and delivered in Japan within the month (arrival-based price) was not disclosed as only one or less company submitted the report for the month.
- The Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures price was in the upper USD 7s to lower USD 8s in the first half of August. After reaching USD 9.3 on 16 August, it remained at the USD 9s, reaching USD 9.7 on 22 August. The 23 August announcement of Freeport LNG's postponement of resumption of operations appeared to have brought some price containment, but HH remained in the high USD 9s through the end of the month. U.S. natural gas underground storage inventories remained low at 2,579 Bcf as of 19 August, down 9.4% from the previous year and down 12% from the historical five-year average.
- According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s 9 August Short-Term Energy Outlook, the average natural gas spot price forecast for the second half of 2022 is USD 7.54, and the average forecast for 2023 is USD 5.10, down due to increased natural gas production. The U.S. LNG exports averaged 10.0 bcf/d in the third quarter of 2022 and 11.2 bcf/d for the full year of 2022, a 14% increase over the previous year. 2023 LNG exports are expected to average 12.7 bcf/d.
- The Dutch TTF Gas Futures price, which had been hovering between high USD 50s and low USD 60s, rose from mid-August, soaring to USD 71.9 on 18 August, USD 81.6 on 22 August, and USD 92.6 and USD 94.4 on 25 and 26 August, respectively. During this period, Gazprom's 19 August announcement of scheduled maintenance to the Nord Stream pipeline and the suspension of gas supply during this time added to the long-standing supply concerns, and the prospect of supply disruptions due to repairs to several Norwegian gas fields followed. TTF settled down slightly to USD 82.5 on 29 August.
- The decline in gas flows into Nord Stream since mid-June, concerns about resumption of supply after further scheduled maintenance staring from the end of August, and uncertainty about supply during the winter months resulted in a significant premium to TTF and further widened the discount of the UK gas price NBP to TTF, which reached a maximum of USD 22.8 in August.
- Based on the preliminary figures from Japan's customs statistics of the Ministry of Finance, the country's average LNG import price was USD 17.79 in July 2022. The Japanese yen denominated price was JPY 125,444 per tonne, another record high since the previous high in May 2022. The average landed prices of LNG in Japan from the United States, the ASEAN region, the Middle East, and Russia in the month were USD 21.07, USD 17.71, USD 20.43, and USD 14.11, respectively. Elsewhere in Asia, average import prices in July were USD 13.49 in China, USD 19.96 in Korea, and USD 16.92 in Chinese Taipei. Japan’s average landed crude oil import price (JCC: Japan crude cocktail) was USD 116.48 per barrel in July 2022. The Japanese yen denominated price stood at JPY 99,663 per kilolitre, even higher than the previous record high price just set in June. Japan’s average LNG import price, which accounts for 70%-80% of long-term contracts linked to JCC prices, is expected to continue to be affected by current crude oil prices.
- Japan imported 6.16 million tonnes of LNG in July 2022, 0.4% lower than the same month of 2021. The total import volume during the first seven months of 2022 was 43.70 million tonnes, a decrease of 3% from the same period of 2021. China imported 4.74 million tonnes of LNG in July 2022, 15% less than the same month of 2021. China's total LNG import volume during the first seven months of 2022 was 35.93 million tonnes, a decrease of 20% from the same period of the previous year. While Korea imported 3.26 million tonnes in July 2022, a decrease of 19% from the same month of 2021, Chinese Taipei imported 1.87 million tonnes, 17% higher than one year earlier. LNG import volume from these four markets was 117.47 million tonnes during the first seven months of 2022, a decrease of 8% year-on-year.
Mid- to long-term trend
- The JKM price started to decline from January 2020, reaching an all-time low of USD 1.83 at the end of April 2020 due to increasing supply and slower growth of demand. After hovering in the USD 2s from May until July, it rose again from August 2020 due to supply disruptions at several production facilities to over USD 10 in December, reaching an all-time high of USD 32.5 in January 2021 because of the cold wave. JKM then fell sharply to the USD 5s towards the end of February, turning upwards in March and thereafter. Moving along with the also high European gas prices and briefly surpassing USD 56 in October, JKM remained in the middle of USD 30s in November, above USD 40 in December. In January and February 2022, JKM was in the USD 20s, temporarily surged to USD 85 in March due to fears of Russian pipeline gas supply disruptions, and then hovered around the USD 30s. Trading has been slow since April, with JKM falling from USD 36 to USD 22 in April and remaining in the low USD 20s during May and the first half of June. However, the price reached USD 40 in the second half of June and remained at the same level in July, and in August the price was generally USD 50s, temporarily exceeding USD 60 and USD 70, respectively.
- JKM's discount to the European gas spot price TTF began to materialize after the end of March against the backdrop of growing uncertainty in gas supply in Europe and declining LNG demand in Northeast Asia, especially China, and while it was contained between USD 1 and USD 10 from April to June, the price differentials ranged from USD 5 to USD 15 in July and from USD 8 to USD 28 in August, showing a considerable price difference.
- Japan's average LNG import price had been declining to the USD 5s in August - October 2020, the lowest level since January 2005, due to the collapse of international crude oil prices from March 2020. Then the average price rose to USD 7s in December 2020 as crude oil prices recovered. In response to strong crude oil price movements, the average price further went up to USD 9s in February 2021, after falling to the mid-USD 7s in March. It was on the rise as crude oil prices rose, climbing to the high USD 15 in February 2022, but falling to the mid-USD 14s in March and then climbing again to the high USD 15s in April and May, and falling to the high USD 14s in June, and increasing to the high USD 17s in July.
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Henry Hub price: NYMEX Futures and Options, CME Group
TTF price: ICE Endex, Intercontinental Exchange
JKM: LNG Japan/Korea Marker© 2022 by S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc.
JOGMEC spot LNG price: Monthly spot LNG prices for delivery to Japan, JOGMEC; by March 2021, the source is Spot LNG Prices Statistics, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Japan’s average LNG import price: Trade Statistics of Japan
EUA(EU ETS): ICE Endex, Intercontinental Exchange
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Trend of Natural Gas and LNG Inventories
- Japan's LNG inventories as of the end of April 2022 stood at 4.27 million tonnes, an increase of 13.8% and 0.52 million tonnes from March, and an increase of 0.6% from April 2021, higher than the past five-year average by 0.15 million tonnes.
- The LNG inventories for city-gas supply as of the end of April 2022 were 1.95 million tonnes, 24.6% higher than March and 19.5% higher than April 2021. LNG consumption for city-gas in April 2022 was 2.36 million tonnes, increased by 0.4% year-on-year. City-gas companies received 2.69 million tonnes of LNG in April 2022, increasing year-on-year by 5.1%.
- The LNG inventories for power generation as of the end of April 2022 were 2.32 million tonnes, increasing by 6.1% from March and 11.3% lower than April 2021. LNG consumption for power generation in April 2022 was 2.77 million tonnes, decreasing by 7.2% from April 2021. Power generation companies received 3.27 million tonnes of LNG, increasing year-on-year by 12.8%.
- According to the "LNG Inventory for Power Generation" released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) on 24 August 2022, major power utilities’ LNG inventories were 2.46 million tonnes as of 21 August. This is higher by 0.03 million tonnes than the end of August 2021 and 0.61 million tonnes above the average of the end of August of the past five years.
Compiled based on data from Gas Business and Thermal Power Generation Statistics, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.As the inventory data is available for the period only after January 2008, the five-year average is applicable only after January 2013.
- As of 19 August 2022, working gas in underground natural gas storage in the United States was 2.58 Tcf, 6.7% increase from the previous month, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gas inventories were 9.5% lower than those at the same time in 2021 and were 353 Bcf lower than the past five-year average. The latest inventories have been within the past five-year range since November 2020.
Compiled based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
- As of 27 August 2022, the stored volume of natural gas in European underground storage facilities operated by the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory (AGSI +) EU member companies was 883.0 TWh (about 58.41 million tonnes LNG equivalent). The volume was higher than that of one year ago by 20.0% or 147.2 TWh (about 9.74 million tonnes LNG equivalent). The inventories represented 79.4% of the capacity, which was higher than 66.1% on the same day in 2021 and higher than the five-year average of 78.9%. The inventories in Germany and the Netherlands (which have relatively large storage capacity among the member countries) were 82.7% and 74.9% of their respective capacities.
Compiled based on data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory (AGSI). As the inventory data is available for the period only after January 2011, the five-year average is applicable only after January 2016.
- As of 27 August 2022, the stored volume of LNG in European LNG terminals reported by Aggregated LNG Storage Inventory (ALSI) member operators (including 18 operators in 11 countries) was 4.83 million cubic meters (in liquid), 9.8% up from the previous month. The inventories were higher than the same day in 2021 by 51.5% and by 2.3% above the five-year average for the same day.
Compiled based on data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, Aggregated LNG Storage Inventory(ALSI). As the inventory data is available for the period only after January 2012, the five-year average is applicable only after January 2017.
Latest Developments in Major Natural Gas and LNG Projects
- Sakhalin Energy LLC, the new Russian entity established in accordance with the government decrees, has announced that it has taken over rights and obligations of Sakhalin Energy Investment Company as of 19 August 2022 to continue LNG operations and deliveries to the existing LNG buyers. The Freeport LNG project in the United States which has been shut down due to an incident, announced a recovery plan and it is anticipated that initial production can commence in early to mid-November, and ramp up to 85% of the capacity by the end of November, with full operation scheduled for March 2023.
Asia and Oceania
- Pakistan LNG issued an LNG procurement tender on 6 August 2022, inviting firms to submit bids for an LNG cargo per month, totalling 72 LNG cargoes on a DES basis for delivery over a period of six years.
- Engro Eximp FZE, a subsidiary of Engro Corporation, announced on 3 August 2022 that it had entered an MOU with Excelerate Energy, Inc., related to the development of a private sector gas marketing business in Pakistan. The partners will evaluate the possibility of establishing a regasified LNG (RLNG) marketing business.
- The ACCC's (Australia's competition authority) July 2022 Interim gas report forecasts the east coast of Australia could face a shortfall of 56 PJ (equivalent to1.2 million tonnes of LNG) in 2023.
- Australia's Beach Energy confirmed on 8 August 2022 signing of the LNG SPA with BP Singapore Pte. Limited. bp will purchase all 3.75 million tonnes of Beach's expected LNG volumes at North West Shelf facilities fed from the Waitsia Stage 2 gas field project. Supply is targeted to commence in the second half of 2023 and will continue for approximately five years. The LNG SPA contains a hybrid pricing structure linked to both Brent and JKM indices. The SPA also includes a downside price protection mechanism.
- Cheniere Energy announced 26 July 2022 that Corpus Christi Liquefaction, LLC (CCL) had entered into a long-term LNG SPA with PTT Global LNG Company Limited (PTTGL), a subsidiary of Thailand's PTT. PTTGL has agreed to purchase 1 million tonnes per year of LNG from CCL for twenty years beginning in 2026. The SPA calls for a combination of FOB and DES deliveries. The price is indexed to the Henry Hub price, plus a fixed liquefaction fee.
- Freeport LNG Development, L.P. announced on 23 August 2022 that it has completed a detailed assessment of alternatives for resuming operations at its liquefaction facility following the incident on 8 June and has identified a recovery plan for reinstatement of partial operations. It is anticipated that initial production can commence in early to mid-November and ramp up to a sustained level of at least 2 Bcf per day by the end of November, representing over 85% of the export capacity of the facility. The recovery plan will utilize Freeport LNG’s second LNG loading dock as a lay berth until loading capabilities at the second dock are reinstated in March 2023, at which time it is anticipated being capable of operating at 100% of the capacity.
- Chesapeake Energy Corporation announced on 2 August 2022 that it had entered into a term gas supply agreement (GSA) with Golden Pass LNG Terminal LLC to deliver 0.3 Bcf per day from the Haynesville to Golden Pass LNG terminal. The GSA is expected to begin in 2024 with a 36-month term at a NYMEX based price less a fixed differential.
- NextDecade Corporation announced on 27 July 2022 the execution of a 20-year SPA with ExxonMobil LNG Asia Pacific (EMLAP) for 1 million tonnes per year of LNG from NextDecade's Rio Grande LNG export project in Brownsville, Texas. The LNG will be supplied from the first two trains of Rio Grande LNG, with the first train expected to start commercial operations as early as 2026.
- Centrica and Delfin Midstream Inc. announced on 9 August 2022 a Heads of Agreement (HoA) to purchase 1 million tonnes per year of LNG for 15 years on an FOB basis at the Delfin Deepwater Port, located off the coast of Louisiana for the first floating LNG export facility in the United States. The deal will facilitate an FID by the end of 2022, with operations expected to commence in 2026.
- Energy Transfer LP announced on 24 August 2022 that its subsidiary Energy Transfer LNG Export, LLC has entered into a 20-year SPA with Shell NA LNG LLC for the Lake Charles LNG project. Energy Transfer LNG will supply Shell with 2.1 million tonnes per year with FOB basis, price linked to Henry Hub plus a fixed liquefaction fee. Delivery is expected to start as early as 2026.
- TC Energy announced on 28 July 2022 that Coastal GasLink LP had executed revised project agreements with LNG Canada that incorporated a revised cost estimate for the pipeline project – that will connect with the LNG Canada facility - of CAD 11.2 billion (up from previous CAD 6.6 billion). The company said that the 670-km project was 70% complete, with two of eight sections finished and expected mechanical in-service by the end of 2023.
- Pacific Energy Corporation Limited and Enbridge Inc. announced on 29 July 2022 an agreement to jointly invest in the construction and operation of the Woodfibre LNG project. Woodfibre LNG is a 2.1 million-tonne-per-year LNG export facility. The project is underpinned by two long-term offtake agreements with BP Gas Marketing Limited for 15 years representing 70% of the capacity, with additional commitments in development for up to 90%. Woodfibre LNG announced in April that the project was expected to be in service in 2027.
Europe and Russia
- Germany's Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection announced on 16 August 2022 that Uniper, RWE and EnBW/VNG signed an MoU with the ministry to supply the floating LNG terminals in Brunsbüttel and Wilhelmshaven. The FSRUs will be used as soon as they are commissioned in winter 2022/23. The companies assure the necessary delivery quantity. The two terminals will be operated by Uniper and RWE on an interim basis until special purpose entities takes over operations.
- Netherlands' Gasunie announced on 1 August 2022 that its subsidiary EemsEnergyTerminal had sold the remaining 1 Bcm-per-year capacity of the LNG terminal in Eemshaven to ENGIE SA. Earlier contracts were signed with ČEZ (Czech Republic) and Shell Western LNG B.V. The total 8 Bcm available in the Eemshaven is now 'sold out'. The first delivery is expected to take place as early as mid-September.
- Snam and Edison announced on 25 July 2022 that they had signed an MOU aimed at co-operating to the development of the Small-Scale LNG market in Italy. The LNG market for heavy goods transport in Italy already accounts for approximately 4,000 trucks, around 130 filling stations and an annual consumption for about 200,000 tonnes. The market is expected to more than double by 2025 with a potential growth of up to 1.5 million tonnes in consumption by 2030.
- Avenir LNG Limited announced on 11 August 2022 that it had signed a MOU with Oxelösunds Hamn AB for the development and construction of an LNG/BioLNG terminal in the Port of Oxelösund, Sweden. The companies have also agreed to evaluate the development of a future energy hub for the transition from LNG/BioLNG to renewable energy sources.
- Gasgrid Finland announced on 17 August 2022 that it had signed an agreement with Fortum to place the FSRU in Fortum's port in Inkoo. Gasgrid plans to deploy the floating terminal in December 2022.
- The new Russian entity «Сахалинская Энергия» (Sakhalin Energy) announced on 19 August 2022 that the rights and obligations of Sakhalin Energy Investment Company under the Production Sharing Agreement were transferred to the new entity. Sakhalin Energy has said its absolute priority remains the key principles - safety, health and care for personnel, ensuring continuous and reliable production - and the fulfilment of all existing obligations. The company has said that the production and shipment of hydrocarbons to buyers are carried out without interruption and in accordance with the schedule approved for 2022.
- NYK, K-Line and Malaysia's MISC announced on 10 August 2022 that the joint-venture companies comprising NYK, "K" Line, MISC Berhad, and China LNG Shipping (Holdings) Limited have signed a long-term time-charter contract with QatarEnergy for seven LNG carriers. The joint-venture companies have also executed shipbuilding contracts for the seven LNG carriers with Korea's Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. (HHI)
- McDermott International announced on 10 August 2022 that the company had been awarded a Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) contract by QatarEnergy for the North Field South (NFS) Offshore Pipelines and Power/FO cables Project. The new contract is in addition to the awards received by McDermott in 2022 for the NFS Jackets and Topsides and Pipelines for the North Field Expansion Project (NFXP). The NFS infrastructure is part of the NFXP development and is designed to supply feed gas for two additional LNG trains and help increase total LNG production in Qatar from 77 to 126 million tonnes per year.
- Eni and its Partners in the New Gas Consortium, Chevron's affiliate in Angola Cabinda Gulf Oil Company Limited, Sonangol P&P, bp and TotalEnergies, together with Angola's National Agency for Oil, Gas and Biofuels ANPG, announced on 27 July 2022 that the FID for the development of the Quiluma and Maboqueiro fields had been taken. This is Angola's first non-associated gas development project and includes two offshore wellhead platforms, an onshore gas processing plant and a connection to Angola LNG plant for the marketing of condensates and gas via LNG cargoes. Project execution activities will start in 2022 with a first gas planned in 2026 and an expected production of 4 Bcm per year.
- Kosmos Energy announced on 8 August 2022 that Phase 1 of the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project in Mauritania & Senegal was over 80% complete at the end of June 2022 with both FLNG and FPSO commissioning work underway. Due to the delay from the lockdown of the FPSO yard in April and the ongoing Covid-19 restrictions in China, the FPSO delivery date is expected to be in the fourth quarter. The partners continue to target first gas in the third quarter of 2023 with first LNG end-2023.
- ENI announced on 5 August 2022 that it had acquired Export LNG Limited, the owner of the Tango FLNG floating liquefaction facility, from Exmar Group. The Tango FLNG, built in 2017, has LNG production capacity of approximately 0.6 million tonnes per year. Tango FLNG will begin its activity in the Republic of Congo as part of the activities of the natural gas development project in the Marine XII block in the second half of 2023. LNG production is expected to begin in 2023.
- ENI's management said on 29 July 2022 that the company was in talks with its joint venture partners in Mozambique on its proposal of a possible additional offshore development through the same fast LNG concept as the company was developing in Congo. The company said the size of the development could range between 2.5 and 3 million tonnes per year.
- France's LNG containment specialist GTT announced on 28 July 2022 that the company booked 88 LNG carrier orders in first half of 2022, followed by additional 38 in July, as well as contracts to equip 38 LNG-powered vessels during the first half.
Supprted by the Institute of Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ)
- Japan Trend of LNG Inventory data(18.6KB) (Aug 29, 2022 update)
- US Trend of Natural Gas Inventory data(52.3KB) (Aug 29, 2022 update)
- Europe Trend of Natural Gas Inventory data(359.8KB) (Aug 29, 2022 update)
- Europe Trend of LNG Inventory data(208.9KB) (Aug 29, 2022 update)