Sep 2022

Trend of Natural Gas and LNG Prices

Short-term trend

  • The assessed spot LNG price for near-month delivery to Northeast Asia, JKM rose to USD 63 per million Btu on 5 September due to supply concerns in Europe, but fell to USD 46 on the following day as demand declined. JKM further fell sharply to USD 39 on 8 September on sluggish demand and talks in Europe on measures to curb gas price hikes. The following week, JKM hovered in the low USD 30s or low 40s, but rose to USD 47 on 15 September on the back of higher European gas prices, before falling to USD 42 on 16 September. Thereafter, JKM hovered in the high USD 30s amid generally stagnant spot market activity, reaching USD 45 on 21 September but falling back to USD 38 on 23 September and USD 35 the following week on 26 September against a backdrop of weak demand and abundant inventories. The recovery of LNG demand in China has stalled due to a switch from gas to coal caused by LNG price hikes, and the lockdown. China’s LNG imports in August were down 28% year on year. On the other hand, LNG inventories in Japan were reported to be above record levels.
  • JKM's price reversal with TTF continued, with the largest price differential in September at USD 22. On the other hand, JKM's near-term cargoes fell in the second half of September and December-delivery cargoes became more expensive, widening the price gap.
  • JOGMEC announced in its monthly report of spot LNG prices for delivery to Japan that the average price of spot LNG cargoes for delivery to Japan contracted in August 2022 and scheduled to be delivered from the month onward (contract-based price) was not disclosed as only one or less company submitted the report for the month. The average price of spot LNG cargoes that were contracted and delivered in Japan within the month (arrival-based price) was not disclosed, either for the same reason.
  • The Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures price declined after reaching USD 9.3 on 1 September and hovered in the high USD 7s to high USD 8s in the first half of September. It declined again after reaching USD 9.1 on 14 September, to USD 6.8 as of 23 September and USD 6.9 the following week on 26 September. U.S. natural gas underground storage inventories remained low at 2,874 bcf as of 16 September, down 6.4% from the previous year and down 10.4% from the five-year average.
  • According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s 7 September Short-Term Energy Outlook, the average natural gas spot price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2022 is USD 9.00, and the average forecast for 2023 is USD 6.00, down due to increased natural gas production. For U.S. LNG exports, the outlook for the fourth quarter of 2022 is for an average of 11.7 bcf/d, an increase of 1.7 Bcf/d from the third quarter average. For 2023, the U.S. LNG exports are forecast to average 12.3 bcf/d according to the outlook.
  • The Dutch TTF Gas Futures price fell sharply from USD 66.6 on 1 September to USD 53.7 after European natural gas underground storage achieved 80% of its target ahead of schedule. With Nord Stream’s outage after its scheduled maintenance, and also due to lower UK wind generation, TTF rose again the following week, reaching USD 65.6 on 6 September. On 7 September, the European Commission’s measures on energy price hikes were presented, and the TTF fell to USD 60.3 and further to USD 56.8 on 9 September. TTF hovered in the high USD 50s the following week, but rose to USD 63.7 when it was reported at the 14 September Energy Ministerial that the proposed price hike measures would not include a price cap. In the second half of September, the TTF was hovering in the high USD 40s to low USD 50s, partly due to a strong buildup of the European natural gas underground storage and oversupply of LNG cargoes.
  • The reduction in gas flows to Nord Stream since mid-June, supply outages since early September, and supply concerns during the winter months have resulted in a significant premium to TTF, with the UK gas price NBP discount to TTF at a September maximum of USD 17.4.
  • Based on the preliminary figures from Japan's customs statistics of the Ministry of Finance, the country's average LNG import price was USD 19.88 per million Btu and JPY 139,380 per tonne in August 2022, both the highest ever recorded. The average landed prices of LNG in Japan from the United States, the ASEAN region, the Middle East, and Russia in August were USD 19.22, USD 18.26, USD 25.50, and USD 14.97, respectively. Elsewhere in Asia, average import prices in August were USD 17.00 in China, USD 23.04 in Korea, and USD 24.60 in Chinese Taipei. Japan’s average landed crude oil import price (JCC: Japan crude cocktail) was USD 112.41 per barrel in August 2022. The Japanese yen denominated price stood at JPY 95,607 per kilolitre, remaining at high levels. Japan’s average LNG import price, which accounts for 70%-80% of long-term contracts linked to JCC prices, is expected to continue to be affected by current crude oil prices.
  • Japan imported 6.27 million tonnes of LNG in August 2022, 0.4% lower than the same month of 2021. The total import volume during the first eight months of 2022 was 49.98 million tonnes, a decrease of 3% from the same period of 2021. China imported 4.72 million tonnes of LNG in August 2022, 28% less than the same month of 2021. China's total LNG import volume during the first eight months of 2022 was 40.64 million tonnes, a decrease of 21% from the same period of the previous year. While Korea imported 3.83 million tonnes in August 2022, an increase of 10% from the same month of 2021, Chinese Taipei imported 1.65 million tonnes, 2% lower than one year earlier. LNG import volume from these four markets was 133.92 million tonnes during the first eight months of 2022, a decrease of 8% year-on-year.

LNG and Spot Gas Prices, 2020 - 2022

Mid- to long-term trend

  • The JKM price started to decline from January 2020, reaching an all-time low of USD 1.83 at the end of April 2020 due to increasing supply and slower growth of demand. After hovering in the USD 2s from May until July, it rose again from August 2020 due to supply disruptions at several production facilities to over USD 10 in December, reaching an all-time high of USD 32.5 in January 2021 because of the cold wave. JKM then fell sharply to the USD 5s towards the end of February, turning upwards in March and thereafter. Moving along with the also high European gas prices and briefly surpassing USD 56 in October, JKM remained in the middle of USD 30s in November, above USD 40 in December. In January and February 2022, JKM was in the USD 20s, temporarily surged to USD 85 in March due to fears of Russian pipeline gas supply disruptions, and then hovered around the USD 30s. Trading has been slow since April, with JKM falling from USD 36 to USD 22 in April and remaining in the low USD 20s during May and the first half of June. However, the price reached USD 40 in the second half of June and remained at the same level in July, and in August the price was generally USD 50s, temporarily exceeding USD 60 and USD 70, respectively. In September, JKM began to hover in the high USD 60s, but showed signs of decline toward the latter part of the month and began to fall below the USD 50s.
  • JKM's discount to the European gas spot price TTF began to materialize after the end of March against the backdrop of growing uncertainty in gas supply in Europe and declining LNG demand in Northeast Asia, especially China, and while it was contained between USD 1 and USD 10 from April to June, the price differentials ranged from USD 5 to USD 15 in July and from USD 8 to USD 28 in August, showing a considerable price difference. In September, this price differential improved slightly to USD 3-24.
  • Japan's average LNG import price had been declining to the USD 5s in August - October 2020, the lowest level since January 2005, due to the collapse of international crude oil prices from March 2020. Then the average price rose to USD 7s in December 2020 as crude oil prices recovered. In response to strong crude oil price movements, the average price further went up to USD 9s in February 2021, after falling to the mid-USD 7s in March. The average price then rose to late USD 15s in February 2022 as oil prices rose, falling to mid-USD14s in March. It rose to late USD 15 in April and May, falling to late USD 14s in June, rising to late USD 17s in July before rising further to late USD 19s in August.

LNG and Spot Gas Prices, 2012 - 2022

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Henry Hub price: NYMEX Futures and Options, CME Group
TTF price: ICE Endex, Intercontinental Exchange
JKM: LNG Japan/Korea Marker© 2022 by S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc.
JOGMEC spot LNG price: Monthly spot LNG prices for delivery to Japan, JOGMEC; by March 2021, the source is Spot LNG Prices Statistics, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Japan’s average LNG import price: Trade Statistics of Japan
EUA(EU ETS): ICE Endex, Intercontinental Exchange

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Trend of Natural Gas and LNG Inventories


  • Japan's LNG inventories as of the end of May 2022 stood at 5.02 million tonnes, an increase of 17.4% and 0.74 million tonnes from April, and an increase of 19.5% from May 2021, higher than the past five-year average by 0.58 million tonnes.
  • The LNG inventories for city-gas supply as of the end of May 2022 were 2.36 million tonnes, 20.6% higher than April and 38.2% higher than May 2021. LNG consumption for city-gas in May 2022 was 2.05 million tonnes, decreased by 9.0% year-on-year. City-gas companies received 2.46 million tonnes of LNG in May 2022, increasing year-on-year by 5.7%.
  • The LNG inventories for power generation as of the end of May 2022 were 2.66 million tonnes, increasing by 14.6% from April and 6.7% higher than May 2021. LNG consumption for power generation in May 2022 was 2.87 million tonnes, increasing by 2.7% from May 2021. Power generation companies received 3.52 million tonnes of LNG, increasing year-on-year by 19.0%.
  • According to the "LNG Inventory for Power Generation" released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) on 21 September 2022, major power utilities’ LNG inventories were 2.62 million tonnes as of 18 September. This is higher by 0.16 million tonnes than the end of September 2021 and 0.68 million tonnes above the average of the end of September of the past five years.

Japan end of month LNG inventory, 2020-2022

Japan end of month LNG inventory, 2012-2022

Compiled based on data from Gas Business and Thermal Power Generation Statistics, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.As the inventory data is available for the period only after January 2008, the five-year average is applicable only after January 2013.

United States

  • As of 16 September 2022, working gas in underground natural gas storage in the United States was 2.87 Tcf, 11.4% increase from the previous month, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gas inventories were 6.7% lower than those at the same time in 2021 and were 332 Bcf lower than the past five-year average. The latest inventories have been within the past five-year range since November 2020.

U.S. Natural Gas Underground Storage, 2020 - 2022

U.S. Natural Gas Underground Storage, 2012 - 2022

Compiled based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)


  • As of 24 September 2022, the stored volume of natural gas in European underground storage facilities operated by the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory (AGSI +) EU member companies was 973.3 TWh (about 64.38 million tonnes LNG equivalent). The volume was higher than that of one year ago by 20.1% or 162.8 TWh (about 10.77 million tonnes LNG equivalent). The inventories represented 87.4% of the capacity, which was higher than 72.8% on the same day in 2021 and higher than the five-year average of 86.5%. The inventories in Germany and the Netherlands (which have relatively large storage capacity among the member countries) were 91.0% and 89.0% of their respective capacities.

European Natural Gas Storage, 2020 - 2022

European Natural Gas Storage, 2012 - 2022

Compiled based on data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory (AGSI). As the inventory data is available for the period only after January 2011, the five-year average is applicable only after January 2016.


  • As of 24 September 2022, the stored volume of LNG in European LNG terminals reported by Aggregated LNG Storage Inventory (ALSI) member operators (including 18 operators in 11 countries) was 4.93 million cubic meters, 2.2% down from the previous month. The inventories were higher than the same day in 2021 by 22.4% and by 2.5% below the five-year average for the same day.

European LNG Inventory, 2020 - 2022

European LNG Inventory, 2012 - 2022

Compiled based on data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, Aggregated LNG Storage Inventory(ALSI). As the inventory data is available for the period only after January 2012, the five-year average is applicable only after January 2017.

Latest Developments in Major Natural Gas and LNG Projects


  • Uncertainty continues over Russian gas supply in both Pacific and European regions. Pipeline gas flows through the Nord Stream pipeline into Germany stopped in late August before ad-hoc maintenance works and have not returned yet. The two Japanese partners have joined the new Russian entity that has taken over the Sakhalin 2 LNG project, although Shell did not.


Asia and Oceania

  • Shell announced on 5 September 2022 that Shell Berhad (SSB) (80%, Operator) and PETRONAS Carigali Sdn Bhd (20%) had taken an FID to develop the Rosmari-Marjoram gas project. Rosmari-Marjoram fields are situated 220 km off the coast of Bintulu, Sarawak, Malaysia and will be powered by solar power for the offshore platform. The development is intended to ensure a sustained gas supply to the PETRONAS LNG Complex. The project is designed to produce 0.8 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day (6 million tonnes per year). Gas production is expected to start in 2026.
  • Malaysia's PETRONAS announced on 23 August 2022 that the company had kicked off the development of the Bintulu Additional Gas Sales Facility (BAGSF-2) at Tanjung Kidurong, Bintulu, that would, from 2023, supply natural gas to Sarawak Petchem Sdn Bhd (SPSB) and Sarawak Energy Berhad (SEB). BAGSF-2 is designed with a capacity to deliver up to 390 million standard cubic feet of gas per day (3 million tonnes per year).
  • bp said during its Q2 2022 Earnings Call on 3 August that the company hoped to start up the Tangguh Train 3 by the end of 2023.
  • Woodside published on 15 September 2022 the final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for the proposed Browse to North West Shelf (NWS) Project as directed by the Australian Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW). The project would send feed gas from fields in the offshore Browse Basin to be processed at the NWS Project's Karratha Gas Plant, with production capacity of 11.4 million tonnes per year (LNG, LPG and Domestic Gas).
  • Woodside announced on 24 August 2022 that construction had commenced on the Pluto Train 2 Project. Pluto Train 2 will process gas from the Scarborough development. Bechtel will execute the engineering, procurement, and construction of Pluto Train 2, which will have an LNG capacity of 5 million tonnes per year. Additional domestic gas infrastructure will be installed with capacity of 225 Terajoules per day (1.5 million tonnes per year).
  • Santos, as operator of the Barossa joint venture, announced on 29 August 2022 that an FID had been taken to proceed with the Darwin Pipeline Duplication Project, located offshore the Northern Territory. The decision will extend the Barossa Gas Export Pipeline to the Santos-operated Darwin LNG (DLNG) facility and allow for the repurposing of the existing Bayu-Undan to Darwin pipeline to facilitate CCS options. Gas from the Barossa field, located 300 kilometres north of Darwin, is intended to replace the current supply from the Bayu-Undan facility located in Timor-Leste. First gas production at DLNG using Barossa gas is targeted for the first half of 2025.
  • Santos noted on 21 September 2022 a decision by the Federal Court to set aside the acceptance by the National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority (NOPSEMA) of an environmental plan covering the drilling and completion activities in relation to the Barossa Gas Project. As a result of the decision, the drilling activities will be suspended pending a favourable appeal outcome or the approval of a fresh Environment Plan. Santos said it would be seeking to expedite these processes. The company said that the Barossa Gas Project was approximately 46% complete.
  • Technip Energies announced on 22 August 2022 that he company, in a consortium with Clough, had been selected to perform the Front End Engineering Design (FEED) for TotalEnergies' Papua LNG project's upstream production facilities in Papua New Guinea. The facilities cover the development of the Elk and Antelope onshore gas fields. It also incorporates a CCS scheme to remove the fields' native CO2 and reinject it into the reservoirs.


North America

  • According to Cheniere, "20/20 Vision" Long-Term Capital Allocation Plan, the company's long-term potential is to reach ~90 million tonnes per year capacity through large-scale brownfield growth opportunities at both Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. The company pre-filed Corpus Christi Midscale Trains 8 & 9 with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in August 2022 with near-term goal to achieve ~60 million tonnes per year.
  • The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on 6 September 2022 denied a request by Cheniere Energy to exempt two Gulf Coast plants from a federal air pollution rule that should limit emissions of formaldehyde released by gas-fired turbines. Cheniere said it disagrees with EPA's decision but will work with state and federal regulators to "develop solutions that ensure compliance" with the hazardous-pollution rule.
  • Energy Transfer LP announced on 24 August 2022 that its subsidiary, Energy Transfer LNG Export, LLC, had entered into a 20-year SPA with Shell NA LNG LLC related to its Lake Charles LNG project. Energy Transfer LNG will supply Shell 2.1 million tonnes per year. The LNG will be supplied on an FOB basis and the purchase price will be indexed to the Henry Hub benchmark, plus a fixed liquefaction charge. The first deliveries are expected to commence as early as 2026.
  • Tellurian announced on 19 September 2022 that it had withdrawn its proposed public offering of units consisting of 11.25% senior secured notes due 2027 and warrants to purchase shares of Tellurian common stock. Tellurian will seek equity partners to help finance its LNG project. The cancelled bond sale puts the planned 2026 startup of Tellurian's Driftwood LNG complex in Louisiana in jeopardy, Tellurian's Chairman said in a video posted on YouTube a day after cancelling the bond deal.
  • Commonwealth LNG and Woodside Energy Trading Singapore Pte Ltd announced on 5 September 2022 the conversion of their non-binding HOA into two binding SPAs, signed on 2 September 2022. The SPAs are for the supply of up to 2.5 million tonnes per year of LNG over 20 years from Commonwealth's LNG export facility under development in Cameron Parish, Louisiana. First deliveries are expected to commence in mid-2026.
  • Delfin Midstream Inc. and Devon Energy Corporation announced on 5 September 2022 that they had entered into an LNG export partnership that includes an executed HOA for long-term liquefaction capacity and a pre-FID investment by Devon in Delfin. The HOA provides the framework for finalizing a definitive long-term tolling agreement representing 1 million tonnes per year of liquefaction capacity in Delfin's first Floating LNG vessel, with the ability to add an additional 1 million tonnes per year in Delfin's first or a future Floating LNG vessel.
  • In documents published on 13 September 2022, the Maritime Administration (MARAD) confirmed it had paused the review of NFE's (New Fortress Energy) Fast LNG project with its letter to the company of 13 August. MARAD requested additional information from NFE in July. However, MARAD informed the company in the letter "the responses are insufficient" and MARAD would have to pause the process, until it received the information it needed.


Europe and Russia

  • Netherlands' Gate terminal B.V, a joint venture of Vopak and Gasunie, announced on 5 September 2022 that it was launching an Open Season to gauge market interest in an additional 4 bcm per year of capacity, inviting market parties to formulate a non-binding expression of interest (EOI).
  • Netherlands' EemsEnergyTerminal announced on 7 September 2022 that the two FSRUs had arrived at Eemshaven. It is expected that the first natural gas will flow into Gasunie's gas network as early as mid-September. The LNG terminal is expected to be operating at full capacity by the end of November/beginning of December. The terminal expects to be able to receive around 18 LNG cargoes during the period up to 31 December.
  • Australia's Woodside and Germany's Uniper announced on 5 September 2022 that they had entered into a flexible long-term SPA for Woodside to supply LNG from its global portfolio into Europe, including Germany, for a term up to 2039, commencing in January 2023. The quantity is up to twelve cargoes per year (equivalent to more than 0.8 million tonnes per year). Supply from September 2031 is conditional upon Uniper finalising its long-term capacity bookings in Northwest Europe.
  • Deutsche ReGas said on 23 August 2022 that it had submitted an application to Germany's Federal Network Agency (BNetzA) for an exemption from regulation for its planned FSRU-based terminal in the port of Lubmin. Deutsche ReGas plans to start operating the terminal in December 2022.
  • Slovakia's gas supplier SPP announced on 8 September 2022 that it had signed a contract with ExxonMobil to buy LNG.
  • According to Finland's Gasum, Greenpeace activists blocked the entry of Coral Energy to Nynäshamn LNG terminal in Sweden on 8 September 2022, protesting the import of Russian LNG to Sweden. After the local police removed the activists from the terminal site, Coral Energy unload the cargo at the terminal on 9 September.
  • Russia's government has approved transferring stakes of Russian entity Sakhalin Energy LLC, to units of Japan's Mitsui & Co. and Mitsubishi Corporation. Shell has confirmed that it has notified the Russian Federal Government and its partners in Sakhalin Energy Investment Company Ltd (SEIC) that Shell will not take equity in the new LLC and that Shell reserves all its legal rights. According to a Russia's government decree on Tuesday 6 September 2022, the criteria - to take over the 27.5% stake in the Sakhalin 2 project previously held by Shell - stipulates that candidates must have experience of operating an LNG production project with a capacity of at least 4 million tonnes per year and a total cumulative volume produced of 40 million tonnes.


Other regions

  • TotalEnergies announced on 24 September 2022 that it has been selected as the first international partner for the 16 million tonnes per year North Field South (NFS) project. TotalEnergies will hold a 9.375% interest out of the 25% allocated to the international partners. QatarEnergy will have the remaining 75%.
  • Air Products announced on 25 August 2022 that it had been awarded the contract to supply four heat exchangers for the NFE LNG Project in Qatar. The four LNG Process trains are being built by Air Products for Chiyoda Corporation and Technip Energies.
  • Eni and bp announced on 7 September 2022 that ENI would acquire bp business in Algeria, including the two gas-producing concessions "In Amenas" and "In Salah" (45.89% and 33.15% working interest respectively). The "In Amenas" and "In Salah" assets, which are jointly operated with Sonatrach and Equinor, are located in the Southern Sahara and their production of gas and associated liquids began in 2006 and 2004 respectively. In 2021 they produced approximately 11 bcm of gas, 12 million barrels of condensates and LPG.
  • Bechtel announced on 08 September 2022 that Shell Egypt, EGAS and Petronas had awarded a front-end engineering and design (FEED) contract to a Bechtel-led coalition that includes Enppi and Petrojet to study a proposed unified power system between the onshore gas processing plant of the West Delta Deep Marine (WDDM) gas fields in the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Egypt and the Egyptian LNG export terminal (ELNG) in Idku, east of Alexandria. According to the announcement, the FEED for the Idku Energy Hub project will explore the benefits of a One Power Hub concept, integrating the electrical power systems at the WDDM and ELNG. It seeks to increase the power saving and greenhouse gas abatement benefits of unifying the electrical power systems of the onshore plants. Bechtel, Enppi and Petrojet will execute the FEED on a fast-track basis aiming to complete the scope of work within 2022.
  • China's Cosco Shipping Heavy Industry said on 13 September 2022 that its Qidong yard had completed the construction of the floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) unit that will serve bp's Greater Tortue Ahmeyim FLNG development offshore Mauritania and Senegal. Kosmos Energy has said that the partners continue to target first gas in the third quarter of 2023 with first LNG by end of 2023.
  • Malaysia's PETRONAS and Argentina's YPF announced on 1 September 2022 that they signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to pursue collaboration in Argentina in an integrated LNG project and other areas. YPF and PETRONAS E&P Argentina S.A. executed a Joint Study and Development Agreement (JSDA) towards the study and potential development of the Argentina Integrated LNG project which will encompass dedicated upstream gas production, dedicated pipeline and infrastructure development, LNG production as well as marketing and shipping.


(Note: SPA: Sale and Purchase Agreement, FID: Final Invest Decision, HOA: Heads of Agreement, FSRU: Floating Storage Regasification Unit, CCS: Carbon Capture and Storage)



Supprted by the Institute of Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ)