Trend of Natural Gas and LNG Prices

Short-term trend

Asia

• The assessed spot LNG price for near-month delivery to Northeast Asia, JKM, was in the low-USD 15s at the beginning of the year due to the rise in European gas prices but was on a downward trend in the early part of January as supply problems were not observed. Then, it rose the low-USD 14s in the first half of the week due to rising supply uncertainties in Europe, including strengthening U.S. sanctions against Russia but soon fell. After that, it has remained in the USD 13s -14s, but demand remains low due to high inventory levels in Northeast Asia.
• Based on the preliminary figures from Japan's customs statistics of the Ministry of Finance, the country's average LNG import price was USD 11.97 per million Btu and JPY 94,607 per tonne in December 2024. The USD price in December was down by USD 0.1 from November due to the fall of Japan’s average landed crude oil import price in September 2024. The average landed prices of LNG in Japan from the United States, the ASEAN region, the Middle East, and Russia in December were USD 11.00, USD 11.68, USD 12.88, and USD 11.95, respectively. Elsewhere in Northeast Asia, average import prices in December were USD 11.39 in China, USD 12.22 in Korea, and USD 11.62 in Chinese Taipei. Japan’s average landed crude oil import price (JCC: Japan crude cocktail) was USD 76.50 per barrel and JPY 73,360 per kilolitre in December 2024.
• Japan imported 6.36 million tonnes of LNG in December 2024, 2.1% lower than the same month of 2023. Japan’s total import volume during 2024 was 65.89 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.4% from 2023. China imported 7.14 million tonnes of LNG in December 2024, a decrease of 13.9% from the same month of 2023. China’s total import volume during 2024 was 76.65 million tonnes, an increase of 7.7% from 2023, and was the second-highest year behind 2021. Korea imported 4.30 million tonnes of LNG in December 2024, 13.5% lower than the same month of 2023, and total import during 2024 was 46.63 million tonnes, an increase of 5.0% from 2023, and was the second-highest year behind 2022. Chinese Taipei imported 1.79 million tonnes, 3.2% lower than one year earlier. Chinese Taipei’s total import volume in 2024 was 21.51 million tonnes, 7.1% higher than in 2023, and was the highest annual import volume ever.

United States

• The Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures price hit the low-USD 4s in the middle of January, as an increase in the volume of withdrawals from underground gas storage due to falling temperatures, and record levels of feed gas supply to U.S. major liquefaction terminals. Although feed gas demand fell due to the suspension of Freeport LNG in late of the month, heating demand due to the cold weather supported the price level.

Europe

• The Dutch TTF Gas Futures price continued to decline in early January due to the limited impact of the non-extension of the gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Although almost no supply problems have been observed since then, it reached the highest level since October 2023 in late January due to falling temperatures and  declines in wind power output.

Mid- to long-term trend

• In June 2023, JKM was hovering around USD 12s due to European gas prices fluctuations and other factors, but softened slightly in July to hover around USD 11s on the back of high inventories and low demand. In August, the possibility of a strike at major projects in Australia caused prices to move slightly higher, rising to USD 15 after the strike was implemented in September. In October, the price rose to USD 17 due to the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East and other factors, but in November, geopolitical risks eased somewhat, and the price generally hovered around USD 14s. In December, abundant supply and soft demand brought JKM down to USD 11, and the trend remained unchanged in January, generally at USD 9. In February, the downward trend was further spurred after the Luner New Year in the Northeast Asia region, falling below USD 8, but temporarily approached USD 10 in March, mainly due to short-term demand. In the middle of April, JKM rose to low-USD 11s due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. In the second half of April, JKM trended low-USD 10s due to easing geopolitical tensions. In the second half of May, the price trended in the range of high-USD 11s to low-USD 12s due to increased demand for the summer season. In June, JKM rose to mid-USD 13s partly due to summer demand. In July, JKM hovered in the range high-USD 11s to low-USD 12s since demand was weak but falling of the price boosted demand in short term. In mid-August, JKM hit the mid-USD 14s and updated its highest in 2024 amid geopolitical uncertainty. From September to October, the price softened slightly to hover around USD 13s due to low demand. In November, falling temperatures and rising geopolitical tensions pushed it to USD 15s, updated its highest in 2024. After that, the increase temporarily paused, but it returned to an upward trend due to the uncertainty of Russian gas flows next year. In January 2025, it mainly hovered around the USD 13s -14s level, following European gas prices.
• Japan's average LNG import price was in the USD 5s from August until October 2020, the lowest level since January 2005, due to the collapse of international crude oil prices from March 2020. Then, the average price rose to USD 7s in December 2020 as crude oil prices recovered. In response to strong crude oil price movements, the average price further went up to USD 9s in February 2021, after falling to the mid-USD 7s in March. It had then been on the constant rise for the following 18 months to the highest ever at USD 22.73 in September 2022, along with the rise of crude oil prices until June 2022. Japan's average LNG import price declined, following the decline of the oil prices from July 2022, and has remained in the range between USD 11 and USD 13 since April 2023.

Trend of Natural Gas and LNG Inventories

Japan

• Japan's LNG inventories as of the end of August 2024 stood at 4.52 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.8% and 0.18 million tonnes from July, and an increase of 3.1% from August 2023, lower than the past five-year average by 0.14 million tonnes.
• Japan's LNG inventories as of the end of September 2024 stood at 4.62 million tonnes, an increase of 2.2% and 0.10 million tonnes from August, and an increase of 5.9% from September 2023, lower than the past five-year average by 0.17 million tonnes.
• Japan's LNG inventories as of the end of October 2024 stood at 4.87 million tonnes, an increase of 5.3% and 0.25 million tonnes from September, and an decrease of 9.2% from October 2023, lower than the past five-year average by 0.15 million tonnes.
• The LNG inventories for city-gas supply as of the end of October 2024 were 2.52 million tonnes, 8.9% higher than September and 6.3% lower than September 2023. LNG consumption for city-gas in October 2024 was 2.00 million tonnes, which increased by 2.5% year-on-year. City-gas companies received 2.06 million tonnes of LNG in November 2024, decreasing year-on-year by 0.3%.
• The LNG inventories for city-gas supply as of the end of November 2024 were 2.79 million tonnes, 10.3% higher than October and 1.6% lower than November 2023. LNG consumption for city-gas in November 2024 was 2.18 million tonnes, which decreased by 5.3% year-on-year. City-gas companies received 2.12 million tonnes of LNG in November 2024, decreasing year-on-year by 2.1%.
• The LNG inventories for power generation as of the end of August 2024 were 2.23 million tonnes, decreasing by 3.2% from July and 0.4% higher than August 2023. LNG consumption for power generation in August 2024 was 3.70 million tonnes, increasing year-on-year by 1.0%. Power generation companies received 4.00 million tonnes of LNG, decreasing year-on-year by 0.3%.
• The LNG inventories for power generation as of the end of September 2024 were 2.30 million tonnes, increasing by 3.3% from August and 16.9% higher than September 2023. LNG consumption for power generation in September 2024 was 3.33 million tonnes, decreasing year-on-year by 3.9%. Power generation companies received 3.77 million tonnes of LNG, increasing year-on-year by 3.7%.
• The LNG inventories for power generation as of the end of October 2024 were 2.34 million tonnes, increasing by 1.7% from September and 12.1% lower than October 2023. LNG consumption for power generation in October 2024 was 2.78 million tonnes, increasing year-on-year by 7.5%. Power generation companies received 3.16 million tonnes of LNG, decreasing year-on-year by 13.1%.
• According to the "LNG Inventory for Power Generation" released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) on 29 January 2025, major power utilities’ LNG inventories were 2.15 million tonnes as of 26 January. This is the same volume of the end of January 2024 and 0.19 million tonnes above the average of the end of January of the past five years.

United States

• As of 17 January 2025, working gas in underground natural gas storage in the United States was 2.89 Tcf, 18.1% decrease from the previous month, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gas inventories were 1.3% higher than those at the same time in 2024 and were 64.6Bcf higher than the past five-year average.

Europe

• As of 28 January 2024, the stored volume of natural gas in European underground storage facilities operated by the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory (AGSI +) EU member companies was 632.0 TWh (about 41.81 million tonnes LNG equivalent). The volume was lower than that of one year ago by 21.9% or 177.7 TWh (about 11.75 million tonnes LNG equivalent). The inventories represented 55.1% of the capacity, which was lower than 73% on the same day in 2024 and lower than the five-year average of 58.7%. The inventories in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands (which have relatively large storage capacities among the member countries) were 57.4%, 64.7% and 39.2% of their respective capacities.

 

• As of 28 January 2024, the stored volume of LNG in European LNG terminals reported by Aggregated LNG Storage Inventory (ALSI) member operators was 4.27 million cubic meters, 3.6% up from the previous month. The inventories were lower than the same day in 2023 by 12.1% and by 2.0% below the five-year average for the same day. The inventories represented 46.4% of the capacity, which was higher than 36.9% on the same day in 2024.

Latest Developments in Major Natural Gas and LNG Projects

Highlights

• The new U.S. administration issued an executive order to officially end the pause of non-FTA LNG export authorization process and direct the Energy Department to resume review of applications as expeditiously as possible.
• In the country, two new LNG production projects are under commissioning stages toward commercial operations. Venture Global has shipped its first LNG cargo from its Plaquemines LNG facility to Germany. Cheniere Energy has started LNG production at its Corpus Christi Stage 3 project. Gas production has also started for an FLNG project offshore Mauritania and Senegal.

 

Asia and Oceania

• Japan's Hokkaido Gas announced on 7 January 2025 that it was considering building a new LNG terminal in Tomakomai. The new facility could also be adapted for hydrogen and e-methane in the future.
• Philippines' First Gen Corporation announced on 6 January 2025 that its FGEN LNG Corporation subsidiary had received the Department of Energy's (DOE) Permit to Operate and Maintain (POM) for its Interim Offshore LNG Terminal located in the First Gen Energy Complex in Batangas City. The POM would be valid for 25 years and allows the operator to proceed to commercial operation.
• The Philippine Competition Commission (PCC) announced on 23 December 2024 that it had approved the joint acquisition of power facilities and an LNG terminal by Meralco PowerGen Corp. (MGen), Therma Natgas Power Inc. and San Miguel Global Power Holdings. MGen and Therma, through their 60/40 joint venture Chromite Gas Holdings Inc., acquire a 67% equity interest in South Premiere Power Corp. (SPPC), Excellent Energy Resources Inc. (EERI), and Ilijan Primeline Industrial Estate Corp., while San Miguel Power will retain the remaining 33% share in South Premiere, Excellent Energy, and Ilijan Primeline. Chromite and San Miguel Power will acquire 100% (67/33) of Linseed Field Corporation (LFC), which operates the LNG terminal in Batangas City.
• Thailand's Gulf Energy Development Plc. announced on 14 January 2025 that the company received its inaugural LNG cargo on 6 January for subsidiary Gulf LNG Company Limited. Gulf LNG's natural gas procurement and shipper license from the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) authorizes Gulf LNG to import up to 6.4 million tonnes of LNG per year. Gulf plans to expand its natural gas business. The expansion strategy includes the development of Map Ta Phut Industrial Port Phase 3, where land reclamation is already over 95% complete, and the LNG Terminal Project is scheduled for completion in 2027.
• Malaysia's Sarawak state government said on 15 January 2025 that it and Petros would work closely with the Malaysia's government and Petronas to ensure that Petros carries out its role as the sole gas aggregator in the state without interruption to the supply of gas for consumers.
• Summit Group said on 22 January 2025 that it had urged Petrobangla to reconsider a notice to terminate the country's third FSRU project. Summit said the termination was not only invalid but that any delay to the project could result in further energy insecurity in Bangladesh.
• ACCC (Australian Competition and Consumer Commission) released on 10 January 2025 its latest gas inquiry report stating that new gas production and supporting infrastructure is not being brought online fast enough despite natural gas playing a critical role in the energy transition. "Our current projections indicate the potential for structural gas shortfalls on the east coast from 2027 unless supply increases or demand decreases," ACCC said. The report has recommended that the role of gas be made explicit in government planning for the energy transition to underpin market-led solutions to achieve energy security and support gas markets in the transition.
• Australia's Woodside Energy said on 22 January 2025 that LNG Train 2 at the North West Shelf project was taken offline on 28 October 2024 as preparations for permanent retirement. Woodside said that it had received environmental approvals from the Western Australian Government for the North West Shelf Project Extension to enable the long-term processing of North West Shelf Joint Venture (NWS JV) field resources and third-party resources through the Karratha Gas Plant.
• Australia's Woodside Energy provided an update on the Scarborough Energy project on 22 January 2025 that the Scarborough and Pluto Train 2 project was 78% complete at the end of 2024 (excluding Pluto Train 1 modifications).
• Australia's Santos said on 23 January 2025 that the Barossa Gas project was 88.3% complete as of the end of 2024 and remained on track for first production in the third quarter of 2025 within current cost guidance. The Darwin pipeline duplication was 71.4% complete with the beach pull to Darwin LNG completed and over 30 km of pipeline installed.
• Australia's Tamboran Resources Corporation announced on 22 January 2025 that it and Santos Limited had entered into a non-binding MOU to undertake technical studies relating to a potential Darwin LNG Train 2 expansion and collaborative work on the jointly owned EP 161 acreage (Santos 75% operator, Tamboran 25%) in the Beetaloo Basin. Tamboran remains committed to progressing the development of the proposed NTLNG project, which is currently undergoing pre-FEED studies with Bechtel Corporation.

 

North America

• An executive order on 20 January 2025 from the new U.S. administration states that "The Secretary of Energy is directed restart reviews of applications for approvals of liquified natural gas export projects as expeditiously as possible, consistent with applicable law. In assessing the "Public Interest" to be advanced by any particular application, the Secretary of Energy shall consider the economic and employment impacts to the United States and the impact to the security of allies and partners that would result from granting the application." DOE announced on 21 January an extension of the public comment period to 20 March 2025 from the previous 18 February to receive comments on the LNG export study that it published in December 2024.
• Cheniere Energy, Inc. announced on 30 December 2024 that LNG was produced for the first time from Train 1 of the Corpus Christi Stage 3 Liquefaction Project (CCL Stage 3). Cheniere expects substantial completion of Train 1 to be achieved at the end of the first quarter of 2025, over six months ahead of the guaranteed completion date.
• Venture Global Inc. announced on 26 December 2024 the loading and departure of the first LNG cargo produced from the Plaquemines LNG facility. The first commissioning cargo was loaded onto one vessel in VG's fleet of nine new LNG ships, being shipped to Germany.
• Baker Hughes announced on 30 December 2024 an order from Bechtel Energy Inc. to supply gas technology equipment for two liquefaction plants with a total capacity of approximately 11 million tonnes per year for Phase 1 of Woodside Energy Group Ltd's Louisiana LNG development opportunity. Chart Industries, Inc. announced on 31 December that it had received the order from Bechtel for the supply of Chart's Integrated Pre-Cooled Single Mixed Refrigerant (IPSMR®) liquefaction technology and cold boxes for Phase 1 of the Louisiana LNG development.
• Australia's Woodside Energy provided an update on the Louisiana LNG development on 22 January 2025. Woodside progressed sell-down opportunities for Louisiana LNG on which strong interest has been received from potential project partners. Woodside was targeting FID readiness from Q1 2025.
• BIDA (Bangladesh Investment Development Authority) announced on 25 January 2025 that the Government of Bangladesh had signed an HOA with Louisiana-based Argent LNG LLC for the purchase of up to 5 million tonnes of LNG per year.
• AGDC (Alaska Gasline Development Corporation) announced on 6 January 2025 that it had a Framework Agreement with a private company to lead and fund the development of the Alaska LNG project. According to ALASKA PUBLIC MEDIA, AGDC on 9 January named Glenfarne Group LLC as the company it was in talks with to take over the Alaska LNG Project. Glenfarne said it had a second agreement with ENSTAR Natural Gas Company to advance a natural gas import infrastructure in the same facility as the proposed export infrastructure in Nikiski.
• The President of the United States on 20 January 2025 issued an Executive Order to "prioritize the development of Alaska's LNG potential, including the permitting of all necessary pipeline and export infrastructure related to the Alaska LNG Project."

 

European and surrounding regions

• Ukraine's largest private energy company DTEK announced on 27 December 2024 that it had took delivery of its first cargo of LNG from the United States at Greece's Revithoussa LNG terminal.
• Russia's Gazprom said on 1 January 2025 that from 8:00 Moscow time, the supply of Russian gas for its transportation through the territory of Ukraine was not carried out. Gazprom said, "due to the repeated refusal of the Ukrainian side to extend these agreements, Gazprom was deprived of the ability to supply gas for transit through the territory of Ukraine."
• The U.S. Treasury issued further sanctions against Russia on 10 January 2025, including four LNG tankers owned by Sovcomflot. The companies linked to the Arctic LNG 2 project include Avision Shipping Services, Hongkong Yaqing Shipping Co, Skyhart Management Services, and ZHOUSHAN WISON OFFSHORE AND MARINE CO LTD. Operators of the Portovaya LNG plant and the Cryogas Vysotsk LNG plant have been added to the sanctions list.

 

Other regions

• Abu Dhabi's ADNOC revealed on 24 December 2024 that ADNOC Trading had signed trading supply agreement to Thailand with Gulf LNG Company Limited. The first cargo of LNG under the agreement, which was sourced from ADNOC Gas, marks the first direct LNG from ADNOC Trading to Thailand, although LNG had been supplied to Thailand from Abu Dhabi.
• CB&I announced on 8 January 2025 that it had been awarded a lump sum contract by TJN Ruwais JV for EPC of two cryogenic tanks and associated civil, structural, mechanical and piping works for its LNG project in Ruwais, Abu Dhabi. TJN Ruwais JV is a joint venture between Technip Energies France-Abu Dhabi, JGC Corporation and NMDC Energy. CB&I will deliver two 180,000 m3 full containment concrete LNG tanks. CB&I's construction activities are expected to commence in November 2025 with project completion targeted in early 2028.
• Abu Dhabi's ADNOC Gas plc announced on 9 January 2025 the awarding of three enabling contracts worth USD 2.1 billion for an LNG pre-conditioning plant (LPP), compression facilities and transmission pipelines to supply feedstock to the Ruwais LNG Project. The largest contract, valued at USD 1.24 billion for the LPP, was awarded to a consortium consisting of Engineering for the Petroleum and Process Industries (ENPPI) and Petrojet. A USD 514 million contract for transmission pipelines was awarded to the China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering Company, while Petrofac Emirates LLC will develop the new compression facilities under a USD 335 million contract.
• bp announced on 2 January 2025 that the company had begun flowing gas from wells at the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) Phase1 LNG project offshore Mauritania and Senegal to its FPSO (floating production storage and offloading) vessel. Partner Kosmos Energy said the first LNG cargo was expected in the first quarter of 2025.
• Golar LNG Limited announced on 21 January 2025 that on 18 January FLNG Gimi received feed gas from the bp operated FPSO on the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project offshore Mauritania and Senegal. Previously, gas from the LNG carrier British Sponsor was being used to undertake advanced commissioning work. The first LNG export cargo is expected within Q1 2025, and full Commercial Operations Date (COD) is expected within Q2 2025.
• Argentina's YPF announced on 21 January 2025 that it signed an MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) with India's Oil India Limited (OIL), Gas Authority of India Limited (GAIL), and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Videsh Limited (OVL) for the export of LNG with an estimated target of up to 10 million tonnes per year.
• Chart Industries, Inc. announced on 8 January 2025 that it had signed a global master goods and services agreement ("enabling agreement") with ExxonMobil. The enabling agreement sets the terms, conditions, and commercial framework for Chart to provide LNG equipment, technology, and services for ExxonMobil's global portfolio of projects. ExxonMobil and Chart will deploy a design once, and then build many concepts to optimize cost, schedule, and quality for LNG projects.
• Shell plc revealed on 8 January 2025 that it trimmed its LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) for Q4 2024 to 6.8 - 7.2 from its previous Q4 2024 Outlook of 6.9 - 7.5, due to lower feedgas and fewer cargos due to the timing of liftings. Shell expects its trading and optimization results in Q4 2024 to be significantly lower than Q3 2024, driven by the (non-cash) impact of expiring hedging contracts.

 

(Note: bcm: billion cubic metre, CCS: Carbon Capture and Storage, DES: delivered ex-ship, DOE: U.S. Department of Energy, EPC: Engineering, Procurement and Construction, EPCI: Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Installation, EPCm: Engineering, Procurement and Construction management, FEED: Front-End Engineering Design, FERC: U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, FID: Final Invest Decision, FLNG: Floating Liquified Natural Gas, FOB: free-on-board, FSRU: Floating Storage and Regasification Unit, FSU: Floating Storage Unit, HOA: Heads of Agreement, MOU: Memorandum of Understanding, SPA: Sale and Purchase Agreement)

 

 

Supprted by the Institute of Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ)