Trend of Natural Gas and LNG Prices

Short-term trend

Asia

• The assessed spot LNG price for near-month delivery to Northeast Asia, JKM, rose to the low-USD 17s on February 10, due to supply concerns over continued cargo outflows to Europe and news of China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. LNG. Since then, the price has declined due to lower European gas prices. The price fell below USD 14 on February 20, and continued cargo outflows to Europe have led to some buying orders.
• Based on the preliminary figures from Japan's customs statistics of the Ministry of Finance, the country's average LNG import price was USD 12.31 per million Btu and JPY 100,351 per tonne in January 2025. The USD price in January was up by USD 0.3 from December despite the fall of Japan’s average landed crude oil import price in October 2024 from September. That suggests that Japan imported more LNG cargos at the higher spot prices of around USD 14 in January than in the previous month. The average landed prices of LNG in Japan from the United States, the ASEAN region, the Middle East, and Russia in January were USD 12.94, USD 12.04, USD 12.63, and USD 11.57, respectively. Elsewhere in Northeast Asia, average import prices in January were USD 11.67 in Korea and USD 11.22 in Chinese Taipei (China’s January data is expected to be available in March). Japan’s average landed crude oil import price (JCC: Japan crude cocktail) was USD 76.57 per barrel and JPY 75,725 per kilolitre in January 2025.
• Japan imported 6.64 million tonnes of LNG in January 2025, 8.7% higher than the same month of 2024. Korea imported 4.44 million tonnes of LNG in January 2025, 8.6% lower than the same month of 2024. Chinese Taipei imported 1.48 million tonnes, 14.9% lower than one year earlier.

United States

• The Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures price rose temporarily at the beginning of the month due to concerns over additional US tariffs. Then, it has upward trends throughout the month due to heating demand from the cold wave and strong feed gas demand for the U.S. major liquefaction terminals.

Europe

• The Dutch TTF Gas Futures price rose to mid-USD 17s on February 10 due to a combination of factors such as lower temperatures, lower renewable energy output, and rapid withdrawals from underground gas storage. After that, the price has generally declined towards the end of the month, due to a pause in these events and lower geopolitical risks from the start of the negotiation on the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Mid- to long-term trend

• In June 2023, JKM was hovering around USD 12s due to European gas prices fluctuations and other factors, but softened slightly in July to hover around USD 11s on the back of high inventories and low demand. In August, the possibility of a strike at major projects in Australia caused prices to move slightly higher, rising to USD 15 after the strike was implemented in September. In October, the price rose to USD 17 due to the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East and other factors, but in November, geopolitical risks eased somewhat, and the price generally hovered around USD 14s. In December, abundant supply and soft demand brought JKM down to USD 11, and the trend remained unchanged in January, generally at USD 9. In February, the downward trend was further spurred after the Luner New Year in the Northeast Asia region, falling below USD 8, but temporarily approached USD 10 in March, mainly due to short-term demand. In the middle of April, JKM rose to low-USD 11s due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. In the second half of April, JKM trended low-USD 10s due to easing geopolitical tensions. In the second half of May, the price trended in the range of high-USD 11s to low-USD 12s due to increased demand for the summer season. In June, JKM rose to mid-USD 13s partly due to summer demand. In July, JKM hovered in the range high-USD 11s to low-USD 12s since demand was weak but falling of the price boosted demand in short term. In mid-August, JKM hit the mid-USD 14s and updated its highest in 2024 amid geopolitical uncertainty. From September to October, the price softened slightly to hover around USD 13s due to low demand. In November, falling temperatures and rising geopolitical tensions pushed it to USD 15s, updated its highest in 2024. After that, the increase temporarily paused, but it returned to an upward trend due to the uncertainty of Russian gas flows next year. In January 2025, it mainly hovered around the USD 13s -14s level, following European gas prices. In February, it hit USD 17s, its highest since November 2023, but soon fell.
• Japan's average LNG import price was in the USD 5s from August until October 2020, the lowest level since January 2005, due to the collapse of international crude oil prices from March 2020. Then, the average price rose to USD 7s in December 2020 as crude oil prices recovered. In response to strong crude oil price movements, the average price further went up to USD 9s in February 2021, after falling to the mid-USD 7s in March. It had then been on the constant rise for the following 18 months to the highest ever at USD 22.73 in September 2022, along with the rise of crude oil prices until June 2022. Japan's average LNG import price declined, following the decline of the oil prices from July 2022, and has remained in the range between USD 11 and USD 13 since April 2023.

Trend of Natural Gas and LNG Inventories

Japan

• Japan's LNG inventories as of the end of September 2024 stood at 4.62 million tonnes, an increase of 2.2% and 0.10 million tonnes from August, and an increase of 5.9% from September 2023, lower than the past five-year average by 0.17 million tonnes.
• Japan's LNG inventories as of the end of October 2024 stood at 4.87 million tonnes, an increase of 5.3% and 0.25 million tonnes from September, and an decrease of 9.2% from October 2023, lower than the past five-year average by 0.15 million tonnes.
• The LNG inventories for city-gas supply as of the end of October 2024 were 2.52 million tonnes, 8.9% higher than September and 6.3% lower than September 2023. LNG consumption for city-gas in October 2024 was 2.00 million tonnes, which increased by 2.5% year-on-year. City-gas companies received 2.06 million tonnes of LNG in November 2024, decreasing year-on-year by 0.3%.
• The LNG inventories for city-gas supply as of the end of November 2024 were 2.79 million tonnes, 10.3% higher than October and 1.6% lower than November 2023. LNG consumption for city-gas in November 2024 was 2.18 million tonnes, which decreased by 5.3% year-on-year. City-gas companies received 2.12 million tonnes of LNG in November 2024, decreasing year-on-year by 2.1%.
• The LNG inventories for power generation as of the end of September 2024 were 2.30 million tonnes, increasing by 3.3% from August and 16.9% higher than September 2023. LNG consumption for power generation in September 2024 was 3.33 million tonnes, decreasing year-on-year by 3.9%. Power generation companies received 3.77 million tonnes of LNG, increasing year-on-year by 3.7%.
• The LNG inventories for power generation as of the end of October 2024 were 2.34 million tonnes, increasing by 1.7% from September and 12.1% lower than October 2023. LNG consumption for power generation in October 2024 was 2.78 million tonnes, increasing year-on-year by 7.5%. Power generation companies received 3.16 million tonnes of LNG, decreasing year-on-year by 13.1%.
• According to the "LNG Inventory for Power Generation" released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) on 26 February 2025, major power utilities’ LNG inventories were 1.94 million tonnes as of 23 February. This is lower by 0.53 million tonnes than the end of February 2024 and 0.57 million tonnes below the average of the end of Februaryof the past five years.

United States

• As of 14 February 2025, working gas in underground natural gas storage in the United States was 2.1 Tcf, 27.4% decrease from the previous month, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gas inventories were 14.9% lower than those at the same time in 2024 and were 113.2Bcf lower than the past five-year average.

Europe

• As of 21 February 2025, the stored volume of natural gas in European underground storage facilities operated by the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory (AGSI +) EU member companies was 471.03 TWh (about 31.12 million tonnes LNG equivalent). The volume was lower than that of one year ago by 35.8% or 263.18 TWh (about 17.41 million tonnes LNG equivalent). The inventories represented 41.03% of the capacity, which was lower than 64.64% on the same day in 2024 and lower than the five-year average of 47.97%. The inventories in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands (which have relatively large storage capacities among the member countries) were 37.09%, 53.20% and 28.42% of their respective capacities.

 

• As of 21 February 2024, the stored volume of LNG in European LNG terminals reported by Aggregated LNG Storage Inventory (ALSI) member operators was 3.94 million cubic meters, 17.7% down from the previous month. The inventories were lower than the same day in 2024 by 13.7% and by 9.1% below the five-year average for the same day. The inventories represented 42.9% of the capacity, which was lower than 52.8% on the same day in 2024.

Latest Developments in Major Natural Gas and LNG Projects

Highlights

The first non-FTA LNG export "conditional" authorization has been announced in the United States since the pause on LNG export authorization process ended. For the Commonwealth LNG project proposed for Cameron Parish, Louisiana, it is subject to final approval of project construction from FERC and ensuing DOE's final authorization expected in July 2025. While the public comment period of the LNG export impact study is still underway, albeit conditional, an export approval is explicitly stated.

 

Asia and Oceania

• INPEX stated on 13 February 2025 the company's aim to establish a framework enabling LNG portfolio supply based on both LNG produced from the company's projects and LNG procured from third parties. The company intends to increase net LNG trading volume from 7.5 million tonnes per year to 8.5 million tonnes per year by 2027 through procuring additional LNG from North America and elsewhere.
• Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd. announced on 19 February 2025 that it had subscribed a 20% stake in FGEN LNG Corporation. FGEN LNG owns and operates a floating LNG terminal in Batangas City, Southern Luzon Island, Philippines.
• Vietnam's PetroVietnam Gas Corporation (PV GAS) said on 6 February 2025 that PV GAS planned to increase the capacity of Thị Vải LNG terminal to 3 million tonnes per year. PV GAS is expected to sign the EPC contract by the end of 2025.
• INPEX stated on 13 February 2025 that the company aimed to achieve an FID for the Abadi LNG project in Indonesia by 2027, with a target to start up by beginning of the 2030s.
• China's Wison New Energies announced on 18 February 2025 that the Keel Laying Ceremony was held at its Nantong Yard for the Genting FLNG Project in Indonesia. The FLNG facility is expected to have a production capacity of 1.2 million tonnes per year. The FLNG facility is scheduled to be deployed to West Papua, Indonesia, to liquefy natural gas produced from the concession area of the Kasuri Block.
• TotalEnergies announced on 12 February 2025 an SPA for ten years from 2026 with India's Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation Limited (GSPC). TotalEnergies will supply GSPC with 400,000 tonnes per year of LNG. The LNG, sourced from TotalEnergies' global portfolio.
• Crown LNG Holdings Limited announced on 18 February 2025 the execution of an MOU with the India Gas Exchange Ltd. (IGX), India's first automated national level trading platform. The MOU outlines how Crown and IGX plan to cooperate on LNG sales to pipeline customers downstream from Crown's planned LNG import terminal in Kakinada, India. The MOU provides a framework for LNG cargoes traveling through Crown's regasification terminal to be listed, marketed, and sold on the IGX.
• bp announced on 10 February 2025 that Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) and bp had signed a contract under which bp would serve as the Technical Services Provider (TSP) for the Mumbai High field in India. ONGC will retain ownership and operational control of the field. bp will receive a fixed fee for two years for its deployed personnel, followed by a service fee linked to incremental oil and gas production.
• Australia's Santos said on 19 February 2025 that the Barossa LNG project was 91% complete and remained on track for first gas in the third quarter 2025.

 

North America

• Cheniere Energy, Inc. said on 20 February 2025 that the company exported 2,327 TBtu (45 million tonnes) of LNG in 646 cargoes in 2024, compared to 2,300 TBtu in 637 cargoes in 2023. (Those compare with Shell's LNG sales of 65.82 million tonnes and the company's share of LNG liquefaction volumes from joint ventures and associates of 14.74 million tonnes in 2024 and in 67.09 million tonnes of sales and 14.94 million tonnes of liquefaction in 2023, as well as TotalEnergies' overall LNG sales of 39.8 million tonnes in 2024 and 44.3 million tonnes in 2023.)
• Cheniere Energy, Inc. said on 20 February 2025 that the company was developing an expansion adjacent to the SPL Project with an expected total production capacity of up to 20 million tonnes per year of LNG (SPL Expansion Project). In February 2024, subsidiaries submitted an application to FERC for authorization to site, construct and operate the SPL Expansion Project, as well as an application to DOE requesting authorization to export LNG to Free-Trade Agreement (FTA) and non-FTA countries. In October 2024, Cheniere received authorization from the DOE to export LNG to FTA countries.
• Cheniere Energy, Inc. said on 20 February 2025 that the company in December 2024 announced that LNG was produced for the first time from the first train of the CCL Stage 3 Project with substantial completion expected to be achieved by the end of the first quarter of 2025. In February 2025, the first cargo of LNG was produced from the CCL Stage 3 Project, according to the announcement.
• Energy Transfer stated on 11 February 2025 its goal to reach an FID for its Lake Charles LNG project in the fourth quarter of 2025.
• According to the DOE's order of 14 February 2025 to grant Commonwealth LNG export authorization, DOE's final decision on Commonwealth's Application will be informed by the 2024 Study and the public comments received in response. While satisfying the directive in the Executive Order to review non-FTA export applications "as expeditiously as possible," DOE acknowledges the importance of completing the ongoing 2024 LNG Export Study proceeding so that DOE's decision-making may benefit from the 2024 Study and the public comments.
• Commonwealth LNG announced on 14 February 2025 that it had received a conditional non-free trade agreement (non-FTA) export authorization from DOE, and separately received its draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS) from FERC. Subject to a FERC Final Order, expected in July 2025, and DOE final authorization, Commonwealth anticipates reaching an FID in September 2025, with first LNG production expected in Q1 2029.
• Baker Hughes announced on 3 February 2025 that Argent LNG LCC had selected Baker Hughes as the liquefaction solution and related services provider for Argent LNG's proposed LNG export facility in Port Fourchon, Louisiana. The facility is set to deliver 24 million tonnes per year of LNG. Phase 1 construction is targeted to begin in 2026, with commercial operations expected by 2030.
• Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd. and Shizuoka Gas Co., Ltd. announced on 21 February 2025 that TG Eagle Ford Resources LP (TGER) and Shizuoka Gas had signed an HoA under which the latter would acquire TGER's Eagle Ford shale gas assets.
• Harvest Alaska announced on 6 February 2025 an agreement with Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) and Chugach Electric Association to bolster Southcentral Alaska's energy supplies through Harvest's acquisition and re-development of the existing Kenai LNG Terminal, currently owned by a subsidiary of MPC. The project is designed to repurpose existing assets to enable delivery of additional natural gas supplies to the Southcentral market as early as 2026, with full-scale operations beginning as early as 2028.

 

European and surrounding regions

• Shell revealed on 30 January 2025 in its 4Q2024 report its forecast LNG liquefaction volumes at 6.6 - 7.2 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2025 compared to 7.1 million tonnes in the fourth quarter and 7.5 million tonnes in the third quarter 2024. LNG sales volumes dropped to 15.5 million tonnes in the fourth quarter from 17.0 million tonnes in the third quarter. Liquefaction volumes for the whole of 2024 fell 3% year-on-year.
• Golar LNG Limited announced on 13 February 2025 that it had executed agreements to sell the 2003 built steam turbine LNG carrier, Golar Arctic. Following the vessel sale, Golar will have fully exited its legacy shipping business.

 

Other regions

• Abu Dhabi's ADNOC Gas plc announced on 27 January 2025 the signing of a three-year LNG supply agreement with JERA Global Markets Pte. Ltd. The LNG will be supplied from ADNOC Gas' Das Island liquefaction facility.
• Abu Dhabi's ADNOC Gas plc announced on 12 February 2025 a 14-year SPA with Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IndianOil) for up to 1.2 million tonnes per year of LNG, with first deliveries to begin in 2026. The LNG will be supplied from ADNOC Gas' Das Island liquefaction facility.
• Oman LNG and Switzerland's trading company Mercuria announced on 18 February 2025 a 10-year SPA. Oman LNG will supply LNG to Mercuria on an FOB basis, with deliveries (800,000 tonnes per year) commencing in April 2025.
• ENI and TotalEnergies, partners in Cyprus offshore Block 6 (ENI 50% operator and TotalEnergies 50%), announced on 17 February 2025 that they had signed a Host Government Agreement (HGA) with Egypt and Cyprus related to the development of Block 6 gas resources. The Cronos gas field in the block was discovered in 2022 and appraised in February 2024. The agreement provides a framework allowing the Cronos gas to be processed in the Zohr facilities offshore Egypt and liquefied at the Damietta LNG plant in Egypt, for export to European markets.
• Cyprus' Ministry of Energy, Commerce and Industry and Chevron, together with the partners, Shell and NewMed, announced on 14 February 2025 the approval of the modifications proposed to the Development and Production Plan (DPP) related to the Aphrodite Field (Offshore Cyprus - Exploration Block 12). The approved DPP includes a Floating Production Unit (a gas processing facility) in the Cypriot Exclusive Economic Zone and a pipeline for exporting gas to Egypt.
• Zululand Energy Terminal, a joint venture between Vopak Terminal Durban and Transnet Pipelines (TPL), announced on 10 February 2025 that Zululand Energy Terminal had signed the Terminal Operator Agreement (TOA) with Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) to design, develop, construct, finance, operate and maintain the LNG terminal at the Port of Richards Bay in South Africa for 25 years. An FID is expected in 2026. The project will be executed in two phases: Phase 1: Development of an FSU, onshore regasification infrastructure, and optional truck loading facilities. Phase 2: Construction of an onshore storage tank replacing the FSU.
• Argentina's YPF said on 31 January 2025 that the company had agreed to join Southern Energy, the company made up of Pan American Energy, Pampa Energia, Harbour Energy and Golar LNG for the installation of the first FLNG vessel on the coasts of Río Negro.
• Centrica announced on 20 February 2025 that it had entered into an SPA with Brazil's Petrobras for purchase by Petrobras of 0.8 million tonnes per year of LNG for 15 years from 2027. The agreement comprises approximately 30% of Centrica's portfolio and will be sourced from Centrica's Sabine Pass and Delfin supply agreements.

 

(Note: bcm: billion cubic metre, CCS: Carbon Capture and Storage, DES: delivered ex-ship, DOE: U.S. Department of Energy, EPC: Engineering, Procurement and Construction, EPCI: Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Installation, EPCm: Engineering, Procurement and Construction management, FEED: Front-End Engineering Design, FERC: U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, FID: Final Invest Decision, FLNG: Floating Liquified Natural Gas, FOB: free-on-board, FSRU: Floating Storage and Regasification Unit, FSU: Floating Storage Unit, HOA: Heads of Agreement, MOU: Memorandum of Understanding, SPA: Sale and Purchase Agreement)

 

 

Supprted by the Institute of Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ)