Trend of Natural Gas and LNG Prices

Short-term trend

Asia

• The assessed spot LNG price for near-month delivery to Northeast Asia, JKM, fell to the low-USD 12s on March 7, due to sluggish demand in Northeast Asia. Since then, the price rose to the high-USD 13s on March 21, against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical risks following several attacks by Russian forces on gas production facilities and infrastructure in Ukraine and President Trump's suggestion of sanctions and additional tariffs on Russia over the negotiations in Ukraine.
• Based on the preliminary figures from Japan's customs statistics of the Ministry of Finance, the country's average LNG import price was USD 11.77 per million Btu and JPY 94,326 per tonne in February 2025. The USD price in February was down by USD 0.5 from January largely due to the fall of Japan’s average landed crude oil import price in November 2024 from October. The average landed prices of LNG in Japan from the United States, the ASEAN region, the Middle East, and Russia in February were USD 11.53, USD 11.58, USD 11.66, and USD 11.60, respectively. Elsewhere in Northeast Asia, average import prices in February were USD 10.59 in China, USD 10.72 in Korea and USD 10.63 in Chinese Taipei. Japan’s average landed crude oil import price (JCC: Japan crude cocktail) was USD 80.40 per barrel and JPY 78,189 per kiloliter in February 2025.
• Japan imported 5.875 million tonnes of LNG in February 2025, 2.5% lower than the same month of 2024. China imported 4.54 million tonnes of LNG in February 2025, 22.9% lower than the same month of 2024. Korea imported 3.34 million tonnes, 20.4% lower than one year earlier. Chinese Taipei imported 1.80 million tonnes, 34.8% higher than one year earlier.
• Japan imported 12.52 million tonnes of LNG in the first two months of 2025, 18% or 1.92 million tonnes more than China's 10.6 million tonnes during the same period.

United States

• The Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures price hovered around USD 4s in the second half of February, but it fell to USD 3.8 on February 28 as heating demand due to the cold weather settled down. During the first week of March, the price rose to USD 4.4 on March 7 due to lower gas storage levels. It then fell to USD 4.1 on March 14 due to warm weather before hovering around USD 4.

Europe

• The Dutch TTF Gas Futures price fell to USD 11s on March 6 due to forecasts of rising temperatures, discussions about easing the next gas storage target, and the possibility of resumption of Russian gas supplies via Ukraine. It then rose to USD 13.5 by the March 14 against the backdrop of attacks on gas production facilities in Ukraine and forecasts of lower temperatures, and once fell to the USD 12s due to forecasts of higher temperatures, but it hovered around USD 13.5 until March 21 due to heightened geopolitical risks.

Mid- to long-term trend

• In June 2023, JKM was hovering around USD 12s due to European gas prices fluctuations and other factors, but softened slightly in July to hover around USD 11s on the back of high inventories and low demand. In August, the possibility of a strike at major projects in Australia caused prices to move slightly higher, rising to USD 15 after the strike was implemented in September. In October, the price rose to USD 17 due to the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East and other factors, but in November, geopolitical risks eased somewhat, and the price generally hovered around USD 14s. In December, abundant supply and soft demand brought JKM down to USD 11, and the trend remained unchanged in January, generally at USD 9. In February, the downward trend was further spurred after the Luner New Year in the Northeast Asia region, falling below USD 8, but temporarily approached USD 10 in March, mainly due to short-term demand. In the middle of April, JKM rose to low-USD 11s due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. In the second half of April, JKM trended low-USD 10s due to easing geopolitical tensions. In the second half of May, the price trended in the range of high-USD 11s to low-USD 12s due to increased demand for the summer season. In June, JKM rose to mid-USD 13s partly due to summer demand. In July, JKM hovered in the range high-USD 11s to low-USD 12s since demand was weak but falling of the price boosted demand in short term. In mid-August, JKM hit the mid-USD 14s and updated its highest in 2024 amid geopolitical uncertainty. From September to October, the price softened slightly to hover around USD 13s due to low demand. In November, falling temperatures and rising geopolitical tensions pushed it to USD 15s, updated its highest in 2024. After that, the increase temporarily paused, but it returned to an upward trend due to the uncertainty of Russian gas flows next year. In January 2025, it mainly hovered around the USD 13s -14s level, following European gas prices. In February, it hit USD 17s, its highest since November 2023, but soon fell. In March, it fell to the low USD 12s on the back of low demand in Northeast Asia, but after that, rose to the high USD 13s due to heightened geopolitical risks.
• Japan's average LNG import price was in the USD 5s from August until October 2020, the lowest level since January 2005, due to the collapse of international crude oil prices from March 2020. Then, the average price rose to USD 7s in December 2020 as crude oil prices recovered. In response to strong crude oil price movements, the average price further went up to USD 9s in February 2021, after falling to the mid-USD 7s in March. It had then been on the constant rise for the following 18 months to the highest ever at USD 22.73 in September 2022, along with the rise of crude oil prices until June 2022. Japan's average LNG import price declined, following the decline of the oil prices from July 2022, and has remained in the range between USD 11 and USD 13 since April 2023.

Trend of Natural Gas and LNG Inventories

Japan

• Japan's LNG inventories as of the end of October 2024 stood at 4.87 million tonnes, an increase of 5.3% and 0.25 million tonnes from September, and an decrease of 9.2% from October 2023, lower than the past five-year average by 0.15 million tonnes.
• Japan's LNG inventories as of the end of November 2024 stood at 5.03million tonnes, an increase of 3.3% and 0.16 million tonnes from October, and a decrease of 8.0% from November 2023, higher than the past five-year average by 0.08 million tonnes.
• The LNG inventories for city-gas supply as of the end of November 2024 were 2.79 million tonnes, 10.3% higher than October and 1.6% lower than November 2023. LNG consumption for city-gas in November 2024 was 2.18 million tonnes, which decreased by 5.3% year-on-year. City-gas companies received 2.12 million tonnes of LNG in November 2024, decreasing year-on-year by 2.1%.
• The LNG inventories for city-gas supply as of the end of December 2024 were 2.46 million tonnes, 12.0% lower than November and 7.0% lower than December 2023. LNG consumption for city-gas in December 2024 was 2.95 million tonnes, which decreased by 4.3% year-on-year. City-gas companies received 2.36 million tonnes of LNG in December 2024, decreasing year-on-year by 10.3%.
• The LNG inventories for power generation as of the end of October 2024 were 2.34 million tonnes, increasing by 1.7% from September and 12.1% lower than October 2023. LNG consumption for power generation in October 2024 was 2.78 million tonnes, increasing year-on-year by 7.5%. Power generation companies received 3.16 million tonnes of LNG, decreasing year-on-year by 13.1%.
• The LNG inventories for power generation as of the end of November 2024 were 2.24 million tonnes, decreasing by 4.4% from October and 15.0% lower than November 2023. LNG consumption for power generation in November 2023 was 2.71 million tonnes, decreasing year-on-year by 8.5%. Power generation companies received 2.98 million tonnes of LNG, decreasing year-on-year by 12.2%.
• According to the "LNG Inventory for Power Generation" released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) on 19 March 2025, major power utilities’ LNG inventories were 1.56 million tonnes as of 16 March. This is higher by 0.08 million tonnes than the end of March 2024 and 0.47 million tonnes below the average of the end of March of the past five years.

United States

• As of 14 March 2025, working gas in underground natural gas storage in the United States was 1.7 Tcf, 18.8% decrease from the previous month, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gas inventories were 26.8% lower than those at the same time in 2024 and were 180.4 Bcf lower than the past five-year average.

Europe

• As of 21 March 2025, the stored volume of natural gas in European underground storage facilities operated by the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory (AGSI +) EU member companies was 387.98 TWh (about 25.67 million tonnes LNG equivalent). The volume was lower than that of one year ago by 42.6% or 287.73 TWh (about 19.03 million tonnes LNG equivalent). The inventories represented 33.84% of the capacity, which was lower than 59.21% on the same day in 2024 and lower than the five-year average of 41.71%. The inventories in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands (which have relatively large storage capacities among the member countries) were 28.78%, 44.29% and 21.74% of their respective capacities.

 

• As of 21 March 2024, the stored volume of LNG in European LNG terminals reported by Aggregated LNG Storage Inventory (ALSI) member operators was 3.62 million cubic meters, 6.5% down from the previous month. The inventories were lower than the same day in 2024 by 21.5% and by 9.3% below the five-year average for the same day. The inventories represented 39.3% of the capacity, which was lower than 53.6% on the same day in 2024.

Latest Developments in Major Natural Gas and LNG Projects

Highlights

The development of LNG production projects in the United States is gaining momentum. On the regulatory front, one project under construction and another under planning have been granted by the DOE to extend the export commencement deadlines. Another project has been granted conditional authorization to export LNG to non-FTA nations. Several developers of those LNG projects under construction have revealed further expansion plans and policies, as well as specific timelines for projects under planning processes. The European Commission has indicated the possibility to support LNG production projects in LNG exporting countries.

 

Asia and Oceania

• Woodside Energy Group Ltd announced on 17 March 2025 that Woodside had signed a long-term SPA with China Resources Gas International Limited for the supply of LNG to China. The SPA provides for the supply of 0.6 million tonnes of LNG per year over 15 years on a DES basis, commencing in 2027. The SPA is Woodside's fourth agreement for long-term LNG sales into Asia signed since the start of 2024. This marks the first time Woodside on a standalone basis has signed a long-term sale agreement with a customer in China.
• IHI Group announced on 17 March 2025 that a consortium of IHI Plant Services Corporation (IPC) and Taiwan's CTCI Corporation had been awarded an EPC contract from CPC Corporation, Taiwan, for four above-ground LNG tanks at CPC Kaohsiung Intercontinental LNG Terminal. The project is scheduled to be completed by late 2030.
• Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs said on 26 February 2025 that TaiPower had received an approval for its plan to build a 2.6 GW gas-fired power plant alongside a 1.8 million tonne per year LNG import terminal west of Keelung Port by the Environmental Impact Assessment Committee of the Ministry of Environment.
• Vitol announced on 4 March 2025 that the company had signed an LNG SPA with LNGPH. Vitol will supply up to 0.8 million tonnes per year of LNG for 10 years starting in 2025. The LNG will be delivered to the LNGPH Terminal in Batangas, Philippines.
• Excelerate Energy, Inc. announced on 14 March 2025 that the company and Petrovietnam Gas Joint Stock Corporation (PV Gas) had signed an MoU to collaborate on securing LNG sourced from the United States as early as 2026. The two parties will also evaluate PV Gas' LNG supply requirements and define a joint strategic framework through which Excelerate and PV Gas can execute LNG sourcing.
• Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade said on 14 March 2025 that PVGas had signed MOUs with ConocoPhillips and an MOU with Excelerate Energy on long-term LNG purchase agreements.
• Australia's Woodside Energy Group said that the Scarborough Energy Project was 80% complete and on track for first LNG cargo in 2026.
• Shell Australia Pty Ltd received on 5 March 2025 an approval for its environmental plan (EP) from the Australia's offshore regulator NOPSEMA (National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority) for the installation and cold commissioning activities at the Crux field off the coast of Western Australia. The project is identified as the primary source of backfill gas supply to the Prelude FLNG facility.

 

North America

• The U.S. Chamber of Commerce announced on 6 March 2025 that a study had been released by S&P Global demonstrating the significant economic and environmental benefits of U.S. LNG exports. It also documents the enormous benefits of building natural gas pipelines to serve Northeast states. The analysis found that U.S. LNG exports help reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. The study found that if pending U.S. LNG projects were to be halted, 85% of the lost volume would be replaced by higher emissions alternatives such as coal, oil, and pipeline gas from Russia and Algeria. Moving forward with those projects would avoid up to 780 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions through 2040.
• EPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) announced on 12 March 2025 31 actions of deregulation, including reconsideration of mandatory Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program and reconsideration of wastewater regulations for oil and gas development.
• Cheniere Energy, Inc. announced on 17 March 2025 that Substantial Completion of Train 1 at the Corpus Christi Stage 3 Liquefaction Project (CCL Stage 3) was achieved on 16 March 2025. Commissioning is complete and Cheniere's EPC partner, Bechtel Energy, Inc. has turned over care, custody, and control of Train 1 and associated systems to Cheniere. CCL Stage 3 consists of seven midscale trains, with an expected total production capacity of over 10 million tonnes per year of LNG.
• Sempra said on 25 February 2025 in its Reports 2024 Financial and Business Results that the company was targeting an FID for the Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 development project in 2025, as the project was receiving strong commercial interest. The Phase 2 project is already anchored by a non-binding HOA for LNG offtake and a proposed equity investment with a subsidiary of Saudi Aramco, as well as a fixed-price EPC contract with Bechtel Energy.
• Venture Global, Inc. announced on 6 March 2025 plans for a brownfield expansion at its Plaquemines LNG facility in Louisiana. The planned expansion will consist of 24 trains, expanding the capacity by 18 million tonnes per year to over 45 million tonnes per year at Plaquemines.
• DOE and Venture Global announced on 19 March 2025, respectively, that Venture Global had received conditional approval from DOE to export LNG to non-FTA countries for its CP2 LNG project in Cameron Parish, Louisiana. DOE expects to issue a final order to CP2 LNG in the coming months.
• DOE approved on 5 March 2025 an LNG export permit extension for Golden Pass LNG Terminal LLC. The approval will grant additional time to begin LNG exports from the Golden Pass LNG plant under construction in Texas.
• NextDecade Corporation and Baker Hughes announced on 11 March 2025 that they had entered into a framework agreement whereby NextDecade plans to utilize Baker Hughes' gas turbine and refrigerant compressor technology (Equipment Packages) and enter into contractual services agreements to perform maintenance work for these Equipment Packages for Trains 4 through 8 at the Rio Grande LNG Facility. NextDecade expects to make an FID and commence construction on Trains 4 and 5 and related infrastructure at the Rio Grande LNG Facility, subject to, maintaining requisite governmental approvals, finalizing and entering into EPC contracts, entering into appropriate commercial arrangements, and obtaining adequate financing to construct each train and related infrastructure. NextDecade is developing and beginning the permitting process for Trains 6 through 8, which are expected to increase the company's total liquefaction capacity by 18 million tonnes per year.
• The US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit on 18 March 2025 reaffirmed validity of FERC's approvals of construction and operation of Rio Grande LNG and Texas LNG export projects, reversing its August 2024 decision to vacate the approval in response to the October requests by the projects for a rehearing.
• DOE approved on 10 March 2025 an LNG export permit extension for Delfin LNG LLC, granting additional time to commence exports from the project proposed for offshore Louisiana. Delfin is seeking to reach an FID in 2025 and have construction begin on its offshore FLNGV (floating liquefied natural gas vessel). The order extends the commencement date for Delfin's export authorization to 1 June 2029. The Maritime Administration of the United States issued on 21 March a license authorizing to Delfin LNG, LLC, to own, construct, operate, and eventually decommission a deepwater port, to export LNG.
• DOE announced on 28 February 2025 an order that removes barriers for the use of LNG as marine fuel to power vessels. The order issued by DOE modifies a prior order issued to JAX LNG under the previous administration that asserted new oversight for the use of LNG to power marine vessels, also known as LNG bunkering. By issuing an Order on Rehearing, DOE is modifying an order originally issued in December 2024.
• Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs said on 20 March 2025 that CPC Corporation, Taiwan, had signed an LOI (Letter of Intent) with Alaska Gasline Development Corporation (AGDC) to purchase LNG and invest in the Alaska LNG project.
• ARC Resources Ltd. announced on 11 March 2025 that it had entered into a long-term SPA with ExxonMobil LNG Asia Pacific. EMLAP will purchase all of ARC's LNG offtake from the Cedar LNG Project - 1.5 million tonnes per year - at international LNG pricing. The Agreement commences with commercial operations at the Cedar LNG Facility, expected in late 2028, and continues for the term of ARC's liquefaction tolling services agreement with Cedar LNG Partners LP.

 

European and surrounding regions

• The European Commission (EC) released "Action Plan for Affordable Energy" on 26 February 2025. Action 3: "Ensuring well-functioning gas markets" states, "Demand aggregation and joint purchasing can play a strong role in accelerating market creation for energy sources and materials needed for clean energy production. By aggregating their demand and adopting joint purchasing strategies in accordance with EU competition rules, EU buyers can leverage their collective economic weight, strengthen their negotiation position and negotiate better terms with suppliers. This approach was also adopted by Japan, which has a longstanding policy of supporting investments in export infrastructure in countries producing liquefied natural gas (LNG). EU joint purchasing power should be harnessed by exploring the option of longer-term contractual engagements to make prices more stable, for example by securing gas liquefaction rights or purchase options. With the EU’s competitiveness, geopolitical considerations and climate goals in mind, the EU and/or Member States could also accompany EU importers in investing directly in export infrastructure abroad, providing preferential loans to private investors. In addition, better coordination among Member States and more flexible filling trajectories, with the support of the Commission, can help reduce system stress and avoid market distortions linked to gas storage refilling, supporting refilling at better purchasing conditions and security of supply."
• The European Commission proposed on 5 March 2025 to extend by two years its mandate to have all national gas inventories filled by 90% by 1 November. The proposal allows for adjustments as it is "inviting EU countries to consider current market conditions and introduce flexibility when deciding on measures to refill storage facilities this summer, allowing them to fill their storage facilities throughout the season at optimal purchase conditions."
• Upcoming: Commission to launch second mid-term matching round via AggregateEU - European Commission announced on 4 March 2025 that a new mid-term matching round to coordinate joint gas purchasing, through the AggregateEU mechanism, would be launched by the Commission on 12 March. It will enable buyers to express their demand for a period from July 2025 until October 2030. Buyers and sellers who wish to participate have until 10 March to register on the PRISMA platform. In previous matching rounds, buyers and sellers could indicate a preferred terminal in the EU for the delivery of LNG. Buyers and sellers can also indicate their preference to have the LNG delivered FOB.
• Italy's OLT Offshore LNG Toscana announced on 14 March 2025 that FSRU Toscana would be in operation until the end of 2044, as a result of the extension of the useful life of the Terminal. In 2024, while the Terminal was in the shipyard to carry out the extraordinary maintenance intervention, OLT also carried out a set of works aimed at extending the useful life of FSRU Toscana.
• The Council of the European Union adopted the 16th Russia sanctions package 24 February 2025. A COUNCIL REGULATION was also adopted, amending past regulation: "The prohibition on reloading services for the purposes of transshipment operations of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) should not affect imports into the Union or the security of supply of Member States. For that reason, the Decision  clarifies that reloading services for the purposes of transshipment operations of Russian LNG are allowed if necessary for its transport between ports of the same Member State, including from the mainland of a Member State to its outermost regions"; and "It is prohibited to import Russian LNG through Union LNG terminals that are not connected to the interconnected natural gas system. The Decision introduces a derogation from the prohibition that can be granted by a Member State that is not connected to the interconnected natural gas system when the LNG is purchased, imported or transferred from a terminal located in another Member State that is connected to the interconnected natural gas system in order to ensure its energy supply."
• Poland's ORLEN and Ukraine's Naftogaz announced on 7 March 2025 that they had agreed on the terms of cooperation in the supply of natural gas to Ukraine. As part of the cooperation memorandum, ORLEN and Naftogaz also signed a gas supply contract for 100 million cubic metres of gas. The gas will be sourced from an LNG cargo to be delivered to the terminal in Klaipėda, Lithuania.

 

Other regions

• Saudi Arabia's Aramco said on 4 March 2025 that it was targeting the production of up to 2.5 million tonnes per year of blue ammonia by 2030, subject to the availability of commercially viable long-term offtake projects, down from 11 million tonnes per year previously.
• Abu Dhabi, UAE, ADNOC and Japan's Osaka Gas announced on 27 February 2025 an SPA for up to 0.8 million tonnes per year of LNG from ADNOC's Ruwais LNG project. The 15-year SPA marks the first long-term LNG sales agreement between ADNOC and Osaka Gas.
• EXIM (Export-Import Bank of the United States) announced on 19 March 2025 that the Board of Directors of EXIM on 13 March unanimously approved the second amendment of a 2019 direct loan of up to USD 4.7 billion to support the export of U.S. goods and services for the development and construction of the Mozambique LNG project. The transaction had been on a four-year pause.
• According to Golar LNG Limited on 27 February 2025, Golar entered into definitive agreements for the deployment of an FLNG in Argentina in July 2024, followed by a notice reserving FLNG Hilli for the 20-year charter in October. Pampa Energia joined the SESA (Southern Energy S.A.) project with a 20% equity stake in November 2024, followed by Harbour Energy in December 2024 with a 15% equity stake and YPF with a 15% equity stake in February 2025. Pan American Energy (PAE) remains with a 40% equity stake and Golar with its 10% equity stake. SESA will be responsible for sourcing Argentine natural gas to the FLNG, chartering and operating FLNG Hilli and marketing and selling LNG. Following the end of FLNG Hilli's current charter in July 2026 offshore Cameroon, FLNG Hilli will undergo vessel upgrades. Operations in Argentina are expected to commence in 2027.

 

(Note: bcm: billion cubic metre, CCS: Carbon Capture and Storage, DES: delivered ex-ship, DOE: U.S. Department of Energy, EPC: Engineering, Procurement and Construction, EPCI: Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Installation, EPCm: Engineering, Procurement and Construction management, FEED: Front-End Engineering Design, FERC: U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, FID: Final Invest Decision, FLNG: Floating Liquified Natural Gas, FOB: free-on-board, FSRU: Floating Storage and Regasification Unit, FSU: Floating Storage Unit, HOA: Heads of Agreement, MOU: Memorandum of Understanding, SPA: Sale and Purchase Agreement)

 

 

Supprted by the Institute of Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ)