Trend of Natural Gas and LNG Prices

Short-term trend

Asia

• The assessed spot LNG price for near-month delivery to Northeast Asia, JKM, was low-USD 12s/MBtu at the beginning of June. But it was on an upward trend due to the expected increase in summer demand and Egypt's purchase of spot cargoes. Due to Israel's attack on Iran in the middle of June and the heightened geopolitical tensions, JKM rose from high-USD 12s/MBtu to high-USD 14s/MBtu, the highest price level since middle of February. The price then fell after the ceasefire was announced.
• Based on the preliminary figures from Japan's customs statistics of the Ministry of Finance, the country's average LNG import price was USD 11.61 per million Btu or JPY 86,666 per tonne in May 2025. The USD price in May was up by USD 0.02 from April due to the rising of Japan’s average landed crude oil import price in February 2025 from January 2025. The average landed prices of LNG in Japan from the United States, the ASEAN region, the Middle East, and Russia in May were USD 12.68, USD 10.66, USD 10.78, and USD 11.75, respectively. Elsewhere in Northeast Asia, average import prices in May were USD 9.91 in China, USD 10.77 in Korea and USD 10.19 in Chinese Taipei. Japan’s average landed crude oil import price (JCC: Japan crude cocktail) was USD 75.23 per barrel or JPY 68,164 per kiloliter in May 2025.
• Japan imported 4.66 million tonnes of LNG in May 2025, 4.3% lower than the same month of 2024. China imported 4.84 million tonnes of LNG in May 2025, 25.6% lower year-on-year (y-o-y). Korea imported 4.01 million tonnes, 11.8% higher to the previous year. Chinese Taipei imported 1.94 million tonnes, 15.9% higher y-o-y.

United States

• The Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures price was on a downward trend in the first half of June, partly due to mild weather. It temporarily reached USD 4 level in the middle of June due to rising geopolitical tensions and high temperatures forecasts in late June. However, due to ceasefire  announcement, it has been on a downward trend then.

Europe

• The Dutch TTF was from high-USD 11s/MBtu to low-USD 12s/MBtu until middle of June, as change of supply volume from Norway and renewable energy. Since the rise of geopolitical tensions, its risk continued to support prices despite weak fundamentals.

Mid- to long-term trend

2024

• January 2024, generally at USD 9. In February, the downward trend was further spurred after the Luner New Year in the Northeast Asia region, falling below USD 8, but temporarily approached USD 10 in March, mainly due to short-term demand. In the middle of April, JKM rose to low-USD 11s due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. In the second half of April, JKM trended low-USD 10s due to easing geopolitical tensions. In the second half of May, the price trended in the range of high-USD 11s to low-USD 12s due to increased demand for the summer season. In June, JKM rose to mid-USD 13s partly due to summer demand. In July, JKM hovered in the range high-USD 11s to low-USD 12s since demand was weak but falling of the price boosted demand in short term. In mid-August, JKM hit the mid-USD 14s and updated its highest in 2024 amid geopolitical uncertainty. From September to October, the price softened slightly to hover around USD 13s due to low demand. In November, falling temperatures and rising geopolitical tensions pushed it to USD 15s, updated its highest in 2024. After that, the increase temporarily paused, but it returned to an upward trend due to the uncertainty of Russian gas flows next year.

2025

• In January 2025, JKM mainly hovered around the USD 13s -14s level, following European gas prices. In February, it hit USD 17s, its highest since November 2023, but soon fell. In March, it fell to the low USD 12s on the back of low demand in Northeast Asia, but after that, rose to the high USD 13s due to heightened geopolitical risks. In April, it fell sharply to the low-USD 11s due to concerns about a global economic recession following the announcement of the US tariff policy, but then rebounded and remained at the low-USD 12s. In May, the price rose to high USD 12 in mid-May and remained in the mid USD 12 range thereafter, as market trends shifted in earnest to summer demand and there was no progress in Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations. In June, it rose to high-USD 14s on rising geopolitical tensions following a conflict between Israel and Iran.

Trend of Natural Gas and LNG Inventories

Japan

• Japan's LNG inventories as of the end of January 2025 stood at 4.96 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.6% or 0.03 million tonnes from December, and an increase of 0.4% from January 2024, higher than the past five-year average by 0.62 million tonnes.
• Japan's LNG inventories as of the end of December 2025 stood at 4.74 million tonnes, a decrease of 4.5% or 0.22 million tonnes from Janurary, and an increase of 2.9% from February 2024, higher than the past five-year average by 0.33 million tonnes.
• The LNG inventories for city-gas supply as of the end of February 2025 were 2.19 million tonnes, 2.7% lower than January and 2.4% higher than February 2024. LNG consumption for city-gas in February 2025 was 2.86 million tonnes, which decreased by 4.8% year-on-year (y-o-y). City-gas companies received 2.71 million tonnes of LNG in Febuary 2025, increasing by 3.1% y-o-y.
• The LNG inventories for city-gas supply as of the end of March 2025 were 1.91 million tonnes, 13.0% lower than February and 11.9% lower than March 2024. LNG consumption for city-gas in March 2025 was 2.58 million tonnes, which decreased by 7.1% y-o-y. City-gas companies received 2.14 million tonnes of LNG in March 2025, which decreased by 14.5% y-o-y.
• The LNG inventories for power generation as of the end of January 2025 were 2.71 million tonnes, increasing by 6.8% from December and 2.4% higher than January 2024. LNG consumption for power generation in January 2025 was 3.55 million tonnes, decreasing by 4.6% y-o-y. Power generation companies received 4.24 million tonnes of LNG, increasing by 12.6% y-o-y.
• The LNG inventories for power generation as of the end of February 2025 were 2.55 million tonnes, decreasing by 6.0% from January and 3.4% higher than February 2024. LNG consumption for power generation in February 2025 was 3.46 million tonnes, increasing by 2.3% y-o-y. Power generation companies received 3.84 million tonnes of LNG, increasing by 2.3% y-o-y.
• According to the "LNG Inventory for Power Generation" released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) on 18 June 2025, major power utilities’ LNG inventories were 2.14 million tonnes as of 15 June. This is higher by 0.01 million tonnes than the end of June 2024 and 0.04 million tonnes above the five-year average.

United States

• As of 13 June 2025, working gas in underground natural gas storage in the United States was 2.8Tcf, 18.0% increase from the previous month, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gas inventories were 8.0% lower than those at the same time in 2024 and were 162Bcf higher than the past five-year average.

Europe

• As of 20 June 2025, the stored volume of natural gas in European underground storage facilities operated by the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory (AGSI +) EU member companies was 628.2TWh (about 41.56 million tonnes LNG equivalent). The volume was lower than the previous year by 25.7% or 217.74 TWh (about 14.40 million tonnes LNG equivalent). The inventories represented 55.4% of the capacity, which was lower than 74.56% on the same day in 2024 and fell below the five-year average of 65.44%. The inventories in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands (which have relatively large storage capacities among the member countries) were 47.22%, 67.62% and 44.09% of their capacities respectively.

 

• As of 20 June 2025, the stored volume of LNG in European LNG terminals reported by Aggregated LNG Storage Inventory (ALSI) member operators was 4.72 million cubic meters, 6.4% down from the previous month. The inventories were higher than the same day in 2024 by 8.4% and by 6.5% above the five-year average for the same day. The inventories represented 50.5% of the capacity, which was higher than a year ago level of 49.9%.

Latest Developments in Major Natural Gas and LNG Projects

Highlights

The first non-"conditional" non-FTA (free-trade agreement) LNG export authorization was granted in the United States after the completion of the DOE's 2024 LNG Export study and comment process announced in May 2025. At some LNG production projects in the United States, 20-year LNG sales agreements with Japanese power generation companies were announced, respectively. Japan imported 27.71 million tonnes of LNG during the first five months of 2025, 0.5% less than the same period in 2024. China's LNG import during the same five-month period of 2025 amounted to 24.86 million tonnes, 23.2% down year-on-year.

 

Asia and Oceania

• India's Torrent Power Ltd on said on 2 June 2025 that it had signed a long-term SPA with bp Singapore Pte Limited for up to 0.41 million tonnes per year of LNG from 2027 to 2036. The LNG will be utilised by Torrent Power - including to operate its 2,730 MW combined cycle gas-based power plants in India. It will also support the Torrent Group's city gas distribution arm - Torrent Gas Ltd.
• JERA Co., Inc. announced on 12 June 2025 that it had finalized 20-year agreements to procure up to 5.5 million tonnes per year of LNG from the United States. The agreements include SPAs with NextDecade Corporation and Commonwealth LNG, respectively, as well as HoAs with Sempra Infrastructure and Cheniere Marketing LLC, respectively.
• Australia's Santos Limited announced on 16 June 2025 that it had received a non-binding indicative proposal which related to the acquisition of all of the ordinary shares on issue in Santos from a consortium led by XRG P.J.S.C., a subsidiary of ADNOC. The Santos Board confirms its intention that, it recommends their shareholders to vote in favour of the transaction in case of the negotiation comes to an agreement.
• JERA announced on 17 June 2025 that PETRONAS and JERA had agreed to expand their collaboration across the gas value chain with the signing of an MoU of 16 June including providing reliable LNG supply for Japan.

 

North America

• On 29 May 2025, Sempra Infrastructure announced that DOE had issued a permit allowing the export of up to 13.5 million tonnes per year of LNG from the Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 development project to countries without a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the United States. According to Sempra, this is the first non-FTA export authorization issued by the DOE following the completion of its 2024 LNG export study. The Phase 2 project will double the liquefaction capacity of the Port Arthur LNG facility to 26 million tonnes per year. Trains 1 and 2 are expected to begin commercial operations in 2027 and 2028, respectively. According to the order, the DOE has authorized exports to non-FTA countries through 31 December 2050.
• NextDecade Corporation announced on 29 May 2025 that it had executed a 20-year LNG SPA with JERA for offtake from Train 5 at the Rio Grande LNG Facility. JERA will purchase 2 million tonnes per year of LNG for 20 years on an FOB basis at a price indexed to Henry Hub, subject to a positive FID on Train 5.
• Japan's Kyushu Electric Power Company announced on 29 May 2025 that it decided to sign an LNG SPA with Energy Transfer LNG Export, LLC. Energy Transfer will supply up to 1 million tonnes of LNG for 20 years on an FOB basis with no destination restrictions to Kyushu Electric.
• Glenfarne Alaska LNG, the lead developer of the Alaska LNG project, announced on 3 June 2025 that it had completed the first phase of its strategic partner selection process, with participation from over 50 companies across the United States, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, India, and the European Union. According to the announcement, these potential partners have formally expressed interest in various forms of partnership with the project—including equipment and service supply, investment, and offtake agreements—totaling over USD 115 billion in contract value. The Alaska LNG pipeline will be constructed in two economically independent phases: the first covering 765 miles (1,231 km) from the North Slope to the Anchorage area, and the second extending 42 miles (68 km) to the Alaska LNG export facility. Glenfarne anticipates making an FID on the domestic segment by the end of Q4 2025.
• On 6 June 2025, Sabine Pass Liquefaction submitted an amended application for approval to FERC. According to the amendment, the Sabine Pass 5 Expansion Project will consist of three natural gas liquefaction trains, each with a maximum annual production capacity of 300 Bcf, and a boil-off gas re-liquefaction facility with an annual capacity of 50 Bcf—bringing the total to 950 Bcf, or 19 million tonnes per year. With this expansion, the total capacity of the Sabine Pass LNG facility will reach 52.04 million tonnes per year.
• According to a document which Venture Global Delta LNG submitted to FERC on 10 June 2025, the company expressed its intention to withdraw its project application related to the Delta LNG project.
• DOE announced on 11 June 2025 that U.S. Secretaries of Energy and the Interior joined CEO of JERA Co., Inc. and representatives from several U.S. LNG producers to announce the finalization of four 20-year agreements between JERA and U.S. companies.
• Sempra Infrastructure announced on 11 June 2025 an HOA with JERA Co. Inc for a 20-year SPA for LNG offtake of 1.5 million tonnes per year on an FOB basis from the Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 development project.
• Commonwealth LNG announced on 11 June 2025 that it had signed an SPA with JERA Co. Inc., under which JERA will purchase 1 million tonnes per year of LNG for 20 years from Commonwealth's facility under development in Cameron, Louisiana.
• NextDecade Corporation announced on 12 June 2025 that its subsidiaries had finalized a pricing refresh of the company's lump-sum, turnkey EPC contract with Bechtel Energy Inc. for the construction of Train 4 and related infrastructure at the Rio Grande LNG Facility and executed a lump-sum, turnkey EPC contract with Bechtel for the construction of Train 5 and related infrastructure at the Rio Grande LNG Facility. Pricing validity under the Train 4 EPC contract extends through 15 September 2025. Pricing validity under the Train 5 EPC contract extends through 15 September 2025. NextDecade expects to achieve an FID on Train 4 before the end of the pricing validity period for the Train 4 EPC contract. NextDecade is targeting FID before the end of the pricing validity period for the Train 5 EPC contract.
• According to FERC's letter of 12 June 2025, Driftwood LNG LLC and Driftwood Pipeline LLC are granted an extension of time until and including 31 December 2029 to complete construction of its Woodside Louisiana LNG and Driftwood Pipeline Projects and make them available for service. Previously, on 15 February 2024, FERC granted Driftwood LNG and Driftwood Pipeline an extension of time, until 18 April 2029, from the original 18 April 2026.
• Malaysia's PETRONAS and Commonwealth LNG, LLC, announced on 17 June 2025 that PETRONAS LNG Ltd. and Commonwealth LNG had entered an LNG SPA. PETRONAS is purchasing one million tonnes per year of LNG from Commonwealth LNG for 20 years from Commonwealth's 9.5 million tonne per year facility under development in Cameron, Louisiana.
• Australia's Woodside Energy announced on 18 June 2025 that Woodside and Malaysia's PETRONAS LNG Ltd had signed a non-binding HOA for the supply of 1 million tonnes per year of LNG to Malaysia from 2028 for 15 years. The LNG would be supplied from Woodside's global portfolio and may include the Louisiana LNG project in the United States.
• Commonwealth LNG announced on 18 June 2025 that it had received the FERC's final order upholding authorization for its 9.5 million tonnes per year LNG export project. With the FERC Final Order in place and prior receipt of a conditional non-free trade agreement export authorization from DOE, Commonwealth anticipates reaching an FID in the third quarter of 2025 with first LNG production expected in 2029.

 

European and surrounding regions

• On 20 May 2025, the European Council adopted its 17th package of sanctions against Russia, including three LNG carriers operated by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL) as its targets.
• On 26 May 2025, Germany’s Deutsche Energy Terminal (DET) announced the commencement of operations at its third floating LNG import terminal, the Wilhelmshaven 2 LNG terminal.
• On 17 June 2025, the European Commission announced a proposal to phase out imports of Russian gas and oil into the EU by the end of 2027. Under the proposal, imports under new contracts for Russian gas would be banned as of 1 January 2026, followed by a ban on imports under existing short-term contracts by 17 June 2026. Finally, by the end of 2027, the ban would extend to deliveries to landlocked countries and imports under long-term contracts.

 

Other regions

• The Energy Chamber of Trinidad & Tobago reported on 3 June 2025 that Shell Trinidad and Tobago Ltd. had taken an FID on the Aphrodite field development in the East Coast Marine Area (ECMA) in Trinidad and Tobago. The gas field will serve as a backfill for the country's Atlantic LNG facility. Development of the field remains subject to receipt of all applicable regulatory approvals, and once approved, is expected to start production in 2027 with an estimated peak production of approximately 18,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) (107 million scf/d).
• Abu Dhabi's ADNOC Gas Plc announced on 10 June 2025 that it had taken an FID for the first phase of its Rich Gas Development (RGD) Project. This FID includes expanding key processing units across four facilities: Asab, Buhasa, Habshan (Onshore), and the Das Island liquefaction facility (Offshore).

 

(Note: bcm: billion cubic metre, CCS: Carbon Capture and Storage, DES: delivered ex-ship, DOE: U.S. Department of Energy, EPC: Engineering, Procurement and Construction, EPCI: Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Installation, EPCm: Engineering, Procurement and Construction management, FEED: Front-End Engineering Design, FERC: U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, FID: Final Invest Decision, FLNG: Floating Liquified Natural Gas, FOB: free-on-board, FSRU: Floating Storage and Regasification Unit, FSU: Floating Storage Unit, HOA: Heads of Agreement, MOU: Memorandum of Understanding, SPA: Sale and Purchase Agreement)

 

 

Supprted by the Institute of Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ)