Trend of Natural Gas and LNG Prices

Short-term trend

Asia

• The assessed spot LNG price for near-month delivery to Northeast Asia, JKM, continued to rise from low-USD 12s/MBtu at the beginning of July to around USD 13/MBtu by mid-July, due to a shortage of cargoes for August delivery because of increased demand due to rising temperatures in Northeast Asia and competition with Europe for cargoes. Since then, it was on a downward trend due to a slackening supply-demand balance because of the switch to September delivery and fell to mid-USD 11s/MBtu in late July.
• Based on the preliminary figures from Japan's customs statistics of the Ministry of Finance, the country's average LNG import price was USD 11.45/MBtu or JPY 85,480/tonne in June 2025. The USD price in June was down by USD 0.16 from May due to the falling of Japan’s average landed crude oil import price in March 2025 from February 2025. The average landed prices of LNG in Japan from the United States, the ASEAN region, the Middle East, and Russia in May were USD 10.89/MBtu, USD 11.59/MBtu, USD 12.12/MBtu, and USD 11.98/MBtu, respectively. Elsewhere in Northeast Asia, average import prices in June were USD 10.26/MBtu in China, USD 10.48/MBtu in Korea and USD 9.65/MBtu in Chinese Taipei. Japan’s average landed crude oil import price (JCC: Japan crude cocktail) was USD 70.21/bbl or JPY 63,604/kL in June 2025.
• Japan imported 4.44 million tonnes of LNG in June 2025, 2.8% lower than the same month of 2024. China imported 5.31 million tonnes of LNG in June 2025, 4.5% lower year-on-year (y-o-y). Korea imported 3.11 million tonnes, 1.2% higher y-o-y. Chinese Taipei imported 1.90 million tonnes, 15.9% lower y-o-y.

United States

• The Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures price fell to low-USD 3s/MBtu in late July from mid-USD 3s/MBtu at the beginning of July. Demand increased due to high temperature forecasts in the eastern and southern regions, while the supply remained stable, resulting in small movements and a slight decline at the end of the month.

Europe

• The Dutch TTF was in mid-USD 11s/MBtu in early July, but temporarily rose to mid-USD 12s/MBtu in mid-July due to increased cooling demand due to the heatwave and demand for injection into underground gas storage. Since then, it softened due to generally milder temperatures and more stable fundamentals, falling to low-USD 11s/MBtu.

Mid- to long-term trend

2024

• January 2024, generally at USD 9/MBtu. In February, the downward trend was further spurred after the Luner New Year in the Northeast Asia region, falling below USD 8/MBtu, but temporarily approached USD 10/MBtu in March, mainly due to short-term demand. In the middle of April, JKM rose to low-USD 11s/MBtu due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. In the second half of April, JKM trended low-USD 10s/MBtu due to easing geopolitical tensions. In the second half of May, the price trended in the range of high-USD 11s/MBtu to low-USD 12s/MBtu due to increased demand for the summer season. In June, JKM rose to mid-USD 13s/MBtu partly due to summer demand. In July, JKM hovered in the range high-USD 11s/MBtu to low-USD 12s/MBtu since demand was weak but falling of the price boosted demand in short term. In mid-August, JKM hit the mid-USD 14s/MBtu and updated its highest in 2024 amid geopolitical uncertainty. From September to October, the price softened slightly to hover around USD 13/MBtu due to low demand. In November, falling temperatures and rising geopolitical tensions pushed it to USD 15/MBtu range, updated its highest in 2024. After that, the increase temporarily paused, but it returned to an upward trend due to the uncertainty of Russian gas flows next year.

2025

• In January 2025, JKM mainly hovered around the USD 13s -14s/MBtu level, following European gas prices. In February, it hit USD 17/MBtu, its highest since November 2023, but soon fell. In March, it fell to the low-USD 12s/MBtu on the back of low demand in Northeast Asia, but after that, rose to the high-USD 13s/MBtu due to heightened geopolitical risks. In April, it fell sharply to the low-USD 11s/MBtu due to concerns about a global economic recession following the announcement of the US tariff policy, but then rebounded and remained at the low-USD 12s/MBtu. In May, the price rose to high-USD 12s/MBtu in mid-May and remained in the mid-USD 12s/MBtu range thereafter, as market trends shifted in earnest to summer demand and there was no progress in Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations. In June, it temporarily rose to high-USD 14s/MBtu on rising geopolitical tensions following a conflict between Israel and Iran, but subsequently fell to low-USD 12s/MBtu following the ceasefire. In July, it rose to around USD 13/MBtu due to a shortage of August cargo due to increased demand from temperature information in Northeast Asia, but fell to mid-USD 11s/MBtu as supplies and demand eased with the shift to September delivery.

Trend of Natural Gas and LNG Inventories

Japan

• Japan's LNG inventories as of the end of February 2025 stood at 4.74 million tonnes, a decrease of 4.5% or 0.22 million tonnes from January, and an increase of 2.9% from February 2024, higher than the past five-year average by 0.33 million tonnes.
• Japan's LNG inventories as of the end of March 2025 stood at 4.36 million tonnes, a decrease of 7.9% or 0.38 million tonnes from February, and an increase of 10.6% from March 2024, lower than the past five-year average by 0.1 million tonnes.
• The LNG inventories for city-gas supply as of the end of March 2025 were 1.91 million tonnes, 13.0% lower than February and 11.9% lower than March 2024. LNG consumption for city-gas in March 2025 was 2.58 million tonnes, which decreased by 7.1% y-o-y. City-gas companies received 2.14 million tonnes of LNG in March 2025, which decreased by 14.5% y-o-y.
• The LNG inventories for city-gas supply as of the end of April 2025 were 2.26 million tonnes, 18.6% higher than March and 7.2% higher than April 2024. LNG consumption for city-gas in April 2025 was 2.06 million tonnes, which decreased by 3% y-o-y. City-gas companies received 2.25 million tonnes of LNG in April 2025, which increased by 24.6% y-o-y.
• The LNG inventories for power generation as of the end of February 2025 were 2.55 million tonnes, decreasing by 6.0% from January and 3.4% higher than February 2024. LNG consumption for power generation in February 2025 was 3.46 million tonnes, increasing by 2.3% y-o-y. Power generation companies received 3.84 million tonnes of LNG, increasing by 2.3% y-o-y.
• The LNG inventories for power generation as of the end of March 2025 were 2.46 million tonnes, decreasing by 3.5% from February and 37.8% higher than March 2024. LNG consumption for power generation in March 2025 was 3.09 million tonnes, increasing by 13.8% y-o-y. Power generation companies received 3.48 million tonnes of LNG, increasing by 3.4% y-o-y.
• According to the "LNG Inventory for Power Generation" released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) on 23 July 2025, major power utilities’ LNG inventories were 1.92 million tonnes as of 20 July. This is lower by 0.02 million tonnes than the end of July 2024 and 0.23 million tonnes below the five-year average.

United States

• As of 11 July 2025, working gas in underground natural gas storage in the United States was 3.1Tcf, 8.9% increase from the previous month, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gas inventories were 4.9% lower than those at the same time in 2024 and were 178Bcf higher than the past five-year average.

Europe

• As of 18 July 2025, the stored volume of natural gas in European underground storage facilities operated by the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory (AGSI +) EU member companies was 730.3TWh (about 48.31 million tonnes LNG equivalent). The volume was lower than the previous year by 21.6% or 201.19 TWh (about 13.31 million tonnes LNG equivalent). The inventories represented 64.4% of the capacity, which was lower than 72.52% on the same day in 2024 and fell below the five-year average of 73.15%. The inventories in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands (which have relatively large storage capacities among the member countries) were 56.53%, 76.68% and 53.48% of their capacities respectively.

 

• As of 18 July 2025, the stored volume of LNG in European LNG terminals reported by Aggregated LNG Storage Inventory (ALSI) member operators was 5.02 million cubic meters, 0.4% down from the previous month. The inventories were higher than the same day in 2024 by 10.7% and by 10.2% above the five-year average for the same day. The inventories represented 53.7% of the capacity, which was higher than a year ago level of 51.9%.

Latest Developments in Major Natural Gas and LNG Projects

Highlights

• Canada has started exporting LNG in the Pacific market.
• Global LNG imports in the first half of 2025 increased 2% year-on-year to 208 million tonnes. LNG imports in Asia, mainly in China, decreased, while combined LNG imports in the European Union and the United Kingdom were around 20% larger year-on-year. As a result, the share of LNG imports in the East of Suez markets decreased from 70% in the twelve months of 2024 to 64% in the first half of 2025.
• Japan imported 32.41 million tonnes of LNG during the first six months of 2025, 0.81% less than the same period of 2024. China's LNG import was down 20.6% year-on-year at 30.11 million tonnes. On the export side, LNG exports from the United States exceeded 50 million tonnes in a six-month period for the first time.

 

Asia and Oceania

• Australia's Santos Limited announced on 27 June 2025 that it had entered into a process and exclusivity deed (Process Deed) with XRG P.J.S.C. (XRG), a subsidiary of ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) and lead investor of a consortium including Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company and Carlyle (the XRG Consortium) in relation to the XRG Consortium's non-binding indicative proposal to acquire 100% of the issued shares of Santos. The XRG Consortium has been granted exclusive due diligence access for a period of six weeks.
• INPEX CORPORATION announced on 3 July 2025 that the Bonaparte CCS Assessment Joint Venture operated by INPEX Browse E&P Pty Ltd (53%) and also involving TotalEnergies CCS Australia Pty Ltd (26%) and Woodside Energy Ltd (21%) had been awarded Major Project Status by the Australian Government. The Bonaparte CCS Project is the first offshore carbon capture and storage project to receive Major Project Status in Australia.
• Australia's Santos announced on 4 July 2025 the signing of a mid-term LNG supply contract with QatarEnergy Trading LLC (QET) to supply 0.5 million tonnes of LNG per year over two years from 2026 with LNG being supplied from Santos' portfolio on a DES.
• GTT announced on 8 July 2025 the signing of a Joint Development Project with seven Chinese players in the maritime industry to design a next-generation LNG carrier. With a total cargo capacity of 200,000 m3 for liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation, the vessel will incorporate three cargo tanks and will be designed to operate at reduced speed. The operational approach allows for a significant reduction in fuel consumption and CO2 emissions per unit of cargo transported, while improving overall energy efficiency, according to the announcement.
• Australia's Woodside Energy announced on 9 July 2025 that it had signed a non-binding MOU with Korea's Hyundai Engineering and Hyundai Glovis, establishing a strategic framework to collaborate on LNG project development, engineering services and shipping logistics.
• India's Petronet LNG Limited (PLL) announced on 10 July 2025 that it had signed a Regasification Agreement with Performance Chemiserve Limited (PCL), a Deepak Fertilisers and Petrochemicals Corporation Limited (DFPCL) group company, for 5.5 years (from May 2026 - July 2026 until December 2031), with LNG to be imported by DFPCL group. PLL will receive, store and regasify approximately 25.6 TBTUs (0.5 million tonnes) of LNG annually, post an initial ramp-up period in calendar year 2026, at its Dahej terminal. The regasified gas will be primarily utilised in manufacturing units of DFPCL group at Taloja. Earlier, an LNG SPA was signed by DFPCL with Equinor.
• GAIL (India) Ltd announced on 14 July 2025 that it had signed an LNG SPA (sales and purchase agreement) with Vitol Asia Pte. Ltd for 1 million tonnes per year of LNG over a 10-year period, starting in 2026.
• POSCO Holdings Inc. announced on 15 July 2025 that POSCO E&C secured a contract for the Gulf MTP (Map Ta Phut) LNG Terminal project in Thailand on 30 June. The project includes the construction of two 250,000 m3 LNG storage tanks, unloading facilities, and regasification systems with an annual processing capacity of 8 million tonnes. The Gulf MTP LNG Terminal marks Thailand's first public-private partnership LNG terminal project.
• Malaysia's PETRONAS announced on 17 July 2025 that its subsidiary PETRONAS LNG Sdn. Bhd. signed an HoA with SMJ Energy Sdn. Bhd to formalise the terms for a 25% equity participation of SMJ Energy in PFLNG 3 Sdn. Bhd. PFLNG 3 Sdn. Bhd. is the project company developing the upcoming shore-based FLNG facility, which will be located in Sipitang Oil & Gas Industrial Park (SOGIP), Sabah.
• Australia's Santos said on 17 July 2025 that the Barossa LNG was ~97% complete. The BW Opal FPSO (floating production, storage and offloading) vessel arrived at the Barossa gas field and was hooked up to the subsea infrastructure. Final commissioning activities are progressing. All scopes of work, including the Darwin LNG life extension activities, remain on track for first gas during the third quarter of 2025. The Gas Export Pipeline and Darwin Pipeline Duplication to Darwin LNG are complete, tested and tied in, ready to receive gas from Barossa.

 

North America

• Glenfarne Alaska LNG, LLC announced on 23 June 2025 that Thailand's PTT Public Company Limited had signed a Cooperation Agreement for strategic participation in the Alaska LNG project, including for the procurement of 2 million tonnes per year of LNG from Alaska LNG over a 20-year term. Glenfarne Alaska LNG said, "With today's agreement and previously announced agreements, Alaska LNG has now reserved 50% of its available third-party LNG offtake capacity to investment grade counterparties."
• Cheniere Energy, Inc. announced on 24 June 2025 that its Board of Directors had made an FID with respect to the Corpus Christi Midscale Trains 8 & 9 and Debottlenecking Project (CCL Midscale Trains 8 & 9) and had issued full notice to proceed to Bechtel Energy, Inc. CCL Midscale Trains 8 & 9 consists of two midscale trains with an expected total liquefaction capacity of over 3 million tonnes per year of LNG and other debottlenecking infrastructure.
• Australia's Woodside Energy announced on 25 June 2025 the completion of the sell-down of a 40% interest in Louisiana LNG Infrastructure LLC to Stonepeak. Stonepeak will provide USD 5.7 billion towards the expected capital expenditure for the foundation development of Louisiana LNG on an accelerated basis, contributing 75% of project capital expenditure in both 2025 and 2026. The closing payment of approximately USD 1.9 billion received by Woodside reflects Stonepeak's 75% share of capex funding incurred since the effective date of 1 January 2025.
• LNG Canada partners announced on 30 June 2025 that the first cargo of LNG had left the LNG Canada facility on the west coast of Canada. Located in Kitimat, British Columbia, the facility will export LNG from two processing trains with total capacity of 14 million tonnes per year. The project contractors - JGC Holdings Corporation and Fluor Corporation - also announced on 1 July that LNG Canada had shipped the first LNG export cargo.
• DOE gave notice on 2 July 2025 of receipt of an Application, filed on 26 June 2025, by Golden Pass LNG Terminal LLC (GPLNG), requesting blanket authorization to export LNG that had been previously imported into the United States from foreign sources in an amount up to the equivalent of 50 billion cubic feet of natural gas (1 million tonnes equivalent) for a period of two years beginning 1 October 2025. LNG that is proposed to be (re)exported would be derived from GPLNG's LNG importing activities and will be residing in LNG storage tanks at the GPLNG terminal. The LNG will either be re-exported or regasified to be used as fuel gas at the facility. GPLNG further plans to use the imported LNG as part of the start-up of the export facility. Contingent on U.S. and global market price signals, the LNG could be regasified to be consumed in the domestic natural gas market.
• Delfin Midstream Inc. announced on 2 July 2025 that it had entered into an agreement with Siemens Energy Inc. to reserve manufacturing capacity for four SGT-750 Gas Turbine Mechanical Drive Packages. Delfin also announced that it had agreed to an Early Works program with Samsung Heavy Industries (SHI) and Black & Veatch Inc. (B&V) to further detail FLNG vessel design specifications as basis for the Lump-Sum Turn-Key Engineering, Procurement, Construction, and Integration (EPCI) contract and to prepare both contractors for the execution of the project.
• Venture Global, Inc. announced on 3 July 2025 the execution of a new 20-year SPA (Sales and Purchase Agreement) with PETRONAS LNG Ltd. PETRONAS will purchase 1 million tonnes per year of LNG from CP2 LNG for 20 years. This builds upon Venture Global's existing agreement with PETRONAS for 1 million tonnes per year of LNG supply from Plaquemines LNG.
• Gulfstream LNG Development, LLC filed its formal application to FERC on 7 July 2025 to build its LNG export project. The project plans to convert domestically produced natural gas to LNG for local, regional and international markets, with a capacity to produce 4 million metric tonnes per year of LNG in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana. Gulfstream LNG Development announced on 22 July that FERC had approved Gulfstream LNG's filing application.
• Venture Global, Inc. and Securing Energy for Europe GmbH (SEFE) announced on 9 July 2025 the finalization of an agreement under which SEFE's subsidiary, SEFE Energy GmbH, would purchase an additional 0.75 million tonnes per year of LNG from CP2 LNG, Venture Global's third project, for 20 years. The announcement amends the existing SPA signed in 2023, increasing the total volume of LNG purchased by SEFE from CP2 LNG to 3.0 million tonnes per year.
• According to a letter filed with FERC on 14 July 2025, Venture Global Inc. has proceeded with Plaquemines Expansion Project design and have increased the number of liquefaction blocks to be permitted from 12 to 16. As a result, the proposed production capacity of the Project has increased from 18.6 million tonnes per year to 24.8 million tonnes per year.
• Venture Global, Inc. and Eni S.P.A. of Italy announced on 16 July 2025 the execution of a new SPA for 2 million tonnes per year of LNG from CP2 LNG, Venture Global's third project, for 20 years. The deal marks Eni's first ever long-term agreement with a U.S. LNG producer. To date, 13.5 million tonnes per year of CP2 Phase One has been sold, raising the total contracted capacity for all of Venture Global's projects to 43.5 million tonnes per year.

 

European and surrounding regions

• The Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) signed on 27 June 2025 a loan agreement amounting to up to USD 252 million (JBIC portion) with WHITE EAGLE ENERGY LIMITED, a Cypriot company owned by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. (MOL). The loan is co-financed with Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation and Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank. The loan is intended to finance the funds necessary for WHITE EAGLE to own a newly built FSRU and provide vessel chartering services, including leasing, operation, and maintenance, to Operator GAZ-SYSTEM.
• Italy's A2A Group announced on 30 June 2025 that A2A and bp had signed an SPA for LNG, under which A2A would purchase up to 10 LNG cargoes per year from 2027 to 2044. The volume will be supplied to A2A on both a DES and an FOB basis. LNG will be received and regasified at the OLT Offshore LNG Toscana terminal in Livorno, Italy, where A2A has secured multi-year regasification capacity through an auction, as well as other terminals in Europe. Deliveries will begin in the last quarter of 2027, with a reduction in volumes starting from 2042. During the final years of the agreement, A2A expects lower domestic gas consumption, meaning part of the supply may be redirected to other markets.
• Deutsche Energy Terminal GmbH (DET) announced on 2 July 2025 that in the latest marketing round, from 23 June to 1 July 2025, DET marketed all offered regasification slots for its Wilhelmshaven 1 and 2 terminals. DET marketed its regasification capacities at the Wilhelmshaven 1 terminal for 2026 and at the Wilhelmshaven 2 terminal for both 2025 and 2026 via the digital marketing platform Prisma.
• According to an announcement of 2 July 2025 by Poland's ORLEN, over the next months, ORLEN will supply 0.14 bcm of natural gas under a new contract with Ukraine's Naftogaz. The gas, sourced from the United States, will be regasified at the LNG terminal in Świnoujście before being transported to Ukraine. This marks the fourth gas supply contract signed between ORLEN and Naftogaz in 2025. The combined volume of the previous three contracts totalled approximately 0.3 bcm. In each case, the gas was regasified LNG imported by the Polish company from the United States via the Świnoujście terminal or the Klaipėda terminal in Lithuania.
• Sacyr Proyecta announced on 14 July 2025 that Fluxys awarded Sacyr Proyecta a new contract involving the development of FEED services at the LNG terminal in Zeebrugge, Belgium. The scope includes the installation of new seawater open rack vaporizers (ORV) and their corresponding pumps, together with a new intake caisson at the terminal's port facilities.
• The European Commission (EC) said on 18 July 2025 in its announcement of the 18th package of sanctions against Russia that three LNG tankers had "been delisted following firm commitments that these vessels will no longer engage in the transport of Russian energy to the Russian Yamal and Arctic 2 projects" "for which they had originally been commissioned. This action demonstrates the impact of EU vessels designations, and that vessels can be returned to service following firm commitments." The corresponding vessels are North Moon, North Ocean and North Light added to the list on 20 May 2025.

 

Other regions

• Seatrium Secures FSRU Conversion Contract from Kinetics, a Karpowership Initiative - Singapore's Seatrium Limited announced on 3 July 2025 the award of an FSRU (Floating Storage Regasification Unit) conversion contract from Kinetics subsidiary of Karpowership. This award follows Kinetics' confirmation of the option for a fourth FSRU conversion project with Seatrium, announced in April 2024, the award of three LNG Carrier (LNGC) conversions into FSRUs for the company, with an option for a fourth project. Scheduled to commence in the third quarter of 2025, the project involves the conversion of an LNG carrier (LNGC) into an FSRU named LNGT Turkiye.
• Korea's Samsung Heavy Industries (SHI) announced on 7 July 2025 that it had secured an initial contract with a European shipping company operating in Africa to construct an FLNG in Mozambique.
• UAE's ADNOC Gas Plc announced on 10 July 2025 that it had entered into a three-year LNG supply agreement with Germany's SEFE, for the delivery of 0.7 million tonnes of LNG with deliveries commencing in 2025. LNG will be supplied from ADNOC Gas' Das Island liquefaction facility.
• New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE) announced on 16 July 2025 that its subsidiary had executed a 5-year agreement for the deployment of the Energos Winter, a 138,250 m3 FSRU, with the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS). The Winter will operate at EGAS' LNG import terminal located at Damietta, Egypt. This is NFE's second FSRU stationed in Egypt, and the Winter will join the Energos Eskimo in Egypt as early as August 2025.

 

(Note: bcm: billion cubic metre, CCS: Carbon Capture and Storage, DES: delivered ex-ship, DOE: U.S. Department of Energy, EPC: Engineering, Procurement and Construction, EPCI: Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Installation, EPCm: Engineering, Procurement and Construction management, FEED: Front-End Engineering Design, FERC: U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, FID: Final Invest Decision, FLNG: Floating Liquified Natural Gas, FOB: free-on-board, FSRU: Floating Storage and Regasification Unit, FSU: Floating Storage Unit, HOA: Heads of Agreement, MOU: Memorandum of Understanding, SPA: Sale and Purchase Agreement)

 

 

Supprted by the Institute of Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ)