Trend of Natural Gas and LNG Prices

Short-term trend

Asia

• The assessed spot LNG price for near-month delivery to Northeast Asia, JKM, fell from the low USD 12s on August 1 to the low USD 11s by mid-August, amid a decline in demand against a backdrop of sufficient supply and high inventories in China. Subsequently, in late August, it rebounded to the high USD 11s due to increased uncertainty regarding ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and the potential for heightened procurement activities in Japan.
• Based on the preliminary figures from Japan's customs statistics of the Ministry of Finance, the country's average LNG import price was USD 11.27/MBtu or JPY 85,051/tonne in July 2025. The USD price in July was down by USD 0.18 from June due to the falling of Japan’s average landed crude oil import price in April 2025 from March 2025. The average landed prices of LNG in Japan from the United States, the ASEAN region, the Middle East, and Russia in May were USD 11.83/MBtu, USD 11.19/MBtu, USD 11.22/MBtu, and USD 11.59/MBtu, respectively. Elsewhere in Northeast Asia, average import prices in July were USD 10.22/MBtu in China, USD 10.64/MBtu in Korea and USD 10.12/MBtu in Chinese Taipei. Japan’s average landed crude oil import price (JCC: Japan crude cocktail) was USD 71.28/bbl or JPY 65,296/kL in July 2025.
• Japan imported 5.27 million tonnes of LNG in June 2025, 6.3% lower than the same month of 2024. China imported 5.44 million tonnes of LNG in July 2025, 6.7% lower year-on-year (y-o-y). Korea imported 3.63 million tonnes, 19.3% higher y-o-y. Chinese Taipei imported 2.07 million tonnes, 7.0% higher y-o-y.

United States

• The Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures price fluctuated around USD 3 per million Btu by mid-August, supported by a decrease in cooling demand due to mild weather, an increase in demand for LNG, and predictions of heat following mid-August. Thereafter, backed by stable supply and cooler weather in the eastern U.S., prices continued to fall to USD 2.7 in late August due to LNG terminal shutdowns and cooler weather. Stock levels steadily increased, remaining above the five-year average.

Europe

• The Dutch TTF initially rose at the beginning of the month following President Trump's remarks on reinforcing tariffs related to sanctions against Russia, but due to stable supply from Norway, it entered a downward trend, falling from USD 11.4 on August 1 to USD 11.1 on the 8th. After that, it briefly recovered due to forecasts of rising temperatures, but in mid-August, it dropped to USD 10.6 driven by expectations for ceasefire negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and eased heatwave forecasts. Later in late August, it rebounded to USD 11.4 due to reduced transportation from the UK and summer maintenance in Norway, which affected supply.

Mid- to long-term trend

2024

• January 2024, generally at USD 9/MBtu. In February, the downward trend was further spurred after the Luner New Year in the Northeast Asia region, falling below USD 8/MBtu, but temporarily approached USD 10/MBtu in March, mainly due to short-term demand. In the middle of April, JKM rose to low-USD 11s/MBtu due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. In the second half of April, JKM trended low-USD 10s/MBtu due to easing geopolitical tensions. In the second half of May, the price trended in the range of high-USD 11s/MBtu to low-USD 12s/MBtu due to increased demand for the summer season. In June, JKM rose to mid-USD 13s/MBtu partly due to summer demand. In July, JKM hovered in the range high-USD 11s/MBtu to low-USD 12s/MBtu since demand was weak but falling of the price boosted demand in short term. In mid-August, JKM hit the mid-USD 14s/MBtu and updated its highest in 2024 amid geopolitical uncertainty. From September to October, the price softened slightly to hover around USD 13/MBtu due to low demand. In November, falling temperatures and rising geopolitical tensions pushed it to USD 15/MBtu range, updated its highest in 2024. After that, the increase temporarily paused, but it returned to an upward trend due to the uncertainty of Russian gas flows next year

2025

• In January 2025, JKM mainly hovered around the USD 13s -14s/MBtu level, following European gas prices. In February, it hit USD 17/MBtu, its highest since November 2023, but soon fell. In March, it fell to the low-USD 12s/MBtu on the back of low demand in Northeast Asia, but after that, rose to the high-USD 13s/MBtu due to heightened geopolitical risks. In April, it fell sharply to the low-USD 11s/MBtu due to concerns about a global economic recession following the announcement of the US tariff policy, but then rebounded and remained at the low-USD 12s/MBtu. In May, the price rose to high-USD 12s/MBtu in mid-May and remained in the mid-USD 12s/MBtu range thereafter, as market trends shifted in earnest to summer demand and there was no progress in Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations. In June, it temporarily rose to high-USD 14s/MBtu on rising geopolitical tensions following a conflict between Israel and Iran, but subsequently fell to low-USD 12s/MBtu following the ceasefire. In July, it rose to around USD 13/MBtu due to a shortage of August cargo due to increased demand from temperature information in Northeast Asia, but fell to mid-USD 11s/MBtu as supplies and demand eased with the shift to September delivery. In August, due to ample supply and weak demand, prices fell to around USD 11 in the early to mid-month, but then rose to the high $11 range due to increasing uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.

Trend of Natural Gas and LNG Inventories

Japan

• Japan's LNG inventories as of the end of March 2025 stood at 4.36 million tonnes, a decrease of 7.9% or 0.38 million tonnes from February, and an increase of 10.6% from March 2024, lowerthan the past five-year average by 0.1 million tonnes.
• Japan's LNG inventories as of the end of April 2025 stood at 4.70 million tonnes, an increase of 7.8% or 0.34 million tonnes from previous month, and a decrease by 0.1% y-o-y, higher than the past five-year average by 0.03 million tonnes.
• The LNG inventories for city-gas supply as of the end of April 2025 were 2.26 million tonnes, 18.6% higher than March and 7.2% higher than April 2024. LNG consumption for city-gas in April 2025 was 2.06 million tonnes, which decreased by 3% y-o-y. City-gas companies received 2.25 million tonnes of LNG in April 2025, which increased by 24.6% y-o-y.
• The LNG inventories for city-gas supply as of the end of May 2025 were 2.54 million tonnes, 12.5% higher than previous month and 4.0% higher than the same month last year. LNG consumption for city-gas in May 2025 was 1.86 million tonnes, which decreased by 6.5% y-o-y. City-gas companies received 2.00 million tonnes of LNG in May 2025, which decreased by 2.9% y-o-y.
• The LNG inventories for power generation as of the end of March 2025 were 2.46 million tonnes, decreasing by 3.5% from February and 37.8% higher than March 2024. LNG consumption for power generation in March 2025 was 3.09 million tonnes, decreasing by 13.8% y-o-y. Power generation companies received 3.48 million tonnes of LNG, increasing by 3.4% y-o-y.
• The LNG inventories for power generation as of the end of April 2025 were 2.44 million tonnes, decreasing by 0.6% from previous month and 6.0% lower than the same month last year. LNG consumption for power generation in April 2025 was 2.45 million tonnes, increasing by 2.6% y-o-y. Power generation companies received 2.77 million tonnes of LNG, decreasing by 22.2% y-o-y.
• According to the "LNG Inventory for Power Generation" released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) on 20 August 2025, major power utilities’ LNG inventories were 2.01 million tonnes as of 17 August. This is higher by 0.41 million tonnes than the end of the same month last year and 0.03 million tonnes below the five-year average.

United States

• As of 8 August 2025, working gas in underground natural gas storage in the United States was 3.2Tcf, 4.4% increase from the previous month, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gas inventories were 2.4% lower than those at the same time last year and were 196Bcf higher than the past five-year average.

Europe

• As of 18 August 2025, the stored volume of natural gas in European underground storage facilities operated by the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory (AGSI+) EU member companies was 843.4TWh (about 55.79 million tonnes LNG equivalent). The volume was lower than the previous year by 17.4% or 178.18 TWh (about 11.79 million tonnes LNG equivalent). The inventories represented 74.21% of the capacity, which was lower than 89.71% on the same day last year and below the five-year average of 81.83%. The inventories in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands (which have relatively large storage capacities among the member countries) were 67.11%, 86.05% and 62.32% of their capacities respectively.

 

• As of 18 August 2025, the stored volume of LNG in European LNG terminals reported by Aggregated LNG Storage Inventory (ALSI) member operators was 4.63 million cubic meters, 9.0% down from the previous month. The inventories were lower than the same day last year by 3.6% and by 0.7% below the five-year average for the same day. The inventories represented 49.5% of the capacity, which was lower than a year ago level of 55.1%.

Latest Developments in Major Natural Gas and LNG Projects

Highlights

At the end of July, an FID for the Venture Global CP2 LNG project in the United States was announced. The total announced FID capacity for LNG production worldwide in 2025 amounts to 40 million tonnes per year, of which 34 comes from projects in the United States.

 

Asia and Oceania

• On 23 July 2025, Woodside Energy announced the completion of decommissioning works on the second train of the North West Shelf (NWS) project. As a result, the annual liquefaction capacity of the Karratha Gas Plant (KGP) has been reduced from 16.9 mtpa to 14.3 mtpa.
• On 25 July 2025, PTTEP announced that it had acquired a 50% participating interest in Block A-18 of the Malaysia–Thailand Joint Development Area (MTJDA). Its subsidiary PTTEP Joint Development entered into an agreement to acquire 100% of the issued shares of Hess International Oil, which holds a 50% interest in the block.
• On 29 July 2025, a consortium of Boskalis and Allseas announced that it had been awarded a contract by CPC Corporation, Taiwan, for the design, construction, installation, and pre-commissioning of a second offshore natural gas pipeline (YT2). This 232 km pipeline will run parallel to the existing YT1 line, linking the Yongan LNG terminal in southwestern Taiwan to the Tongxiao station in the northwest.
• On 29 July 2025, Woodside Energy announced that it had agreed with ExxonMobil Australia to take over operatorship of the Bass Strait gas fields. Completion of the transaction is targeted for 2026. The Bass Strait fields currently supply around 40% of Australia’s east coast gas demand.
• On 1 August 2025, Kawasaki Heavy Industries announced that the company and CTCI had secured the EPC contract for LNG tanks at the planned Mailiao LNG receiving terminal in the Formosa Mailiao Industrial Zone, Yunlin County, Taiwan. Completion is scheduled for around mid-2029.
• From 4 to 6 August 2025, INPEX CORPORATION announced the commencement of FEED (Front-End Engineering and Design) works for the Abadi LNG project in Indonesia, for which it serves as operator. The FEED works will define detailed specifications for the gas field production and processing facilities as well as the liquefaction plant. A “dual FEED” approach is being adopted for the FPSO and the LNG plant, whereby two separate consortia for the FPSO and the LNG plant each will conduct FEED work in parallel.
• On 7 August 2025, Trafigura announced that it had signed a five-year LNG supply contract with Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC) for 2.5 million tonnes over the contract period.
• Chiyoda Corporation announced on 8 August 2025 that the company had been awarded an EPC contract by Saibu Gas Co., Ltd to enhance the capacity of the Hibiki LNG Terminal.
• On 12 August 2025, Australian company Venice Energy announced that it had agreed to sell its Outer Harbor LNG terminal project at the Port of Adelaide, South Australia, to AG&P LNG.
• On 19 August 2025, Woodside Energy announced that its own share of production from the NWS project in the first half of 2025 fell by 23.0% year-on-year, due to reservoir decline, planned maintenance, and cyclone impacts.
• On 19 August 2025, Woodside Energy announced that its own share of production from the Wheatstone LNG project in the first half of 2025 increased by 8.6% year-on-year.

 

North America

• On 17 July 2025, FERC issued a letter approving Freeport LNG’s two applications to extend the deadline for completing construction and commencing operations of its Train 4 project until 1 December 2031.
• On 23 July 2025, Hanwha Shipping, a U.S. subsidiary of Hanwha Ocean, announced that it had placed an order for one LNG carrier with its affiliate, Hanwha Philly Shipyard. This will mark the first ocean-going LNG carrier to be built in the United States in approximately 50 years.
• On 23 July 2025, Woodside Energy announced its withdrawal from the planned H2OK project in Oklahoma, citing rising costs and weak hydrogen demand.
• On 23 July 2025, the U.S. government published a “Fact Sheet” on the U.S.-Japan Strategic Trade and Investment Agreement. It stated that Japan, under U.S. direction, will invest USD 550 billion to rebuild and expand U.S. core industries, including energy infrastructure and production (LNG, advanced fuels, and grid modernization). It further noted that U.S. energy exports to Japan will be significantly increased, with new contracts for Alaskan LNG under consideration.
• On 28 July 2025, Venture Global announced FID and USD 15.1 billion project financing for Phase 1 of the CP2 LNG project and the associated CP Express Pipeline.
• On 31 July 2025, Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) announced that, as part of a trade agreement with the United States, Korea had established a USD 150 billion shipbuilding cooperation fund to facilitate the acquisition of U.S. shipyards.
• On 31 July 2025, Sempra and JERA announced a 20-year SPA for LNG supply from Phase 2 of Port Arthur LNG. JERA will receive 1 mtpa on an FOB basis under the agreement.
• On 1 August 2025, NextDecade announced that it had signed an LSTK (lump-sum, turnkey) EPC contract with Bechtel for Train 4 and associated infrastructure at the Rio Grande LNG project.
• On 1 August 2025, Fluor announced that its joint venture with JGC Corporation had been awarded an updated FEED contract for Phase 2 of the LNG Canada expansion project.
• On 4 August 2025, the U.S. DOE announced its final approval for additional LNG exports from Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass project to non-FTA countries. The approval allows for an additional 20 bcf per year, equivalent to about five cargoes.
• On 4 August 2025, Commonwealth LNG announced that it had awarded the EPC contract for its LNG project to Technip Energies.
• On 6 August 2025, LNG Canada submitted an application to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) to amend its 12-month export authorization from 38.056 bcm (28 mtpa) to 40.485 bcm (30 mtpa).
• On 7 August 2025, NextDecade announced that it had signed agreements with TotalEnergies and Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP). TotalEnergies and GIP will respectively take 10% and 50% stakes in the Rio Grande LNG Train 4 project in exchange for committing to project financing under the agreements.
• On 7 August 2025, Kimmeridge announced the closing of a strategic investment in the company from Mubadala Energy.
• On 7 August 2025, Sempra stated that it expected first LNG cargoes from the Energía Costa Azul (ECA) LNG project in Baja California, Mexico, as early as spring 2026.
• On 8 August 2025, Cheniere and JERA announced that they had signed an LNG SPA. Under the agreement, JERA will purchase 1 mtpa of LNG for 22 years starting in 2029 on an FOB basis from the Corpus Christi and Sabine Pass LNG plants.
• On 8 August 2025, AMIGO LNG announced that it had awarded the EPC contract for its offshore facilities to Mexican company Constructora Manzanillo (COMSA Marine).
• On 12 August 2025, Venture Global announced that an arbitration tribunal had ruled in its favor in the dispute with Shell regarding alleged contractual breaches over shipments from Calcasieu Pass LNG.
• On 13 August 2025, Commonwealth LNG submitted an application to FERC seeking authorization to move beyond initial site preparation works for its LNG project.
• On 15 August 2025, Centrica announced that its trading subsidiary Centrica Energy had signed a gas SPA with Devon Energy. Under the agreement, Devon will supply natural gas equivalent to five LNG cargoes per year for 10 years starting in 2028, priced against TTF.
• On August 18, 2025, Coastal Bend LNG announced that it had launched a FEED study with Solvanic on carbon capture using the electrochemical amine regeneration (EMAR) process at its LNG facility.
• On 19 August 2025, Woodside Energy announced that the SPAs it signed in September 2022 with Commonwealth LNG were terminated in the first half of 2025, as Commonwealth LNG failed to achieve stipulated milestones including FID within the agreed timeframe.
• On 19 August 2025, AMIGO LNG announced that it had signed a long-term SPA with Gunvor Singapore for 0.85 mtpa of LNG over 20 years.
• On 21 August 2025, the United States and the European Union announced that they had agreed on a trade framework agreement. According to the announcement, the EU intends to procure U.S.-sourced LNG, petroleum products, and nuclear energy products worth USD 750 billion by 2028.
• Corpus Christi LNG has submitted an application to FERC to initiate the pre-filing process under NEPA for its Stage IV expansion project. Construction is scheduled to begin in Q3 2027.
• On 21 August 2025, Sempra and ConocoPhillips announced that they had signed a 20-year SPA for LNG supply from Phase 2 of Port Arthur LNG, covering 4 mtpa.

 

European and surrounding regions

• On 18 July 2025, the Council of the European Union adopted an amendment to extend by two years member states’ obligation to maintain sufficient gas stocks ahead of winter under the gas storage regulation. The binding 90% target remains, but flexibility has been introduced to allow compliance at any point between 1 October and 1 December.
• On 29 July 2025, Poland’s GAZ-SYSTEM announced that it had commenced dredging works in Gdańsk Bay, the planned site of the country’s first FSRU terminal. The facility will have an annual capacity of 6 bcm and is scheduled to begin operations in late 2027 or early 2028.
• On 24 July 2025, Saipem and Subsea7 announced that they had finalized their merger agreement, following the MoU signed on 23 February 2025. The merged entity will operate under the name Saipem7.
• On August 7, 2025, ConocoPhillips announced that it had signed an LNG contract at the Dunkerque terminal in France, with deliveries expected to begin in 2028.

 

Other regions

• On 25 July 2025, Qatari shipping company Nakilat announced that it had agreed on the first tranche of a financing package with the Export-Import Bank of Korea for 25 LNG carriers owned and operated by Nakilat.
• According to a research report by Rystad Energy dated 29 July 2025, global FLNG capacity is expected to triple by 2030—from 14.1 mtpa in 2024 to 42 mtpa in 2030, and further to 55 mtpa by 2035.
• On 4 August 2025, ADNOC Gas of the UAE announced that it had signed an HoA with Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL) of India for a 10-year LNG supply agreement. Under the deal, 0.5 mtpa of LNG will be supplied from Das Island LNG.
• On 6 August 2025, Golar LNG announced that Southern Energy S.A. (SESA) of Argentina had taken an FID on a charter of Golar’s 3.5 mtpa MK II FLNG. Operations are expected to commence in 2028.
• On 15 August 2025, Saudi Aramco announced that it had signed a lease-and-leaseback agreement with an international investment consortium for the Jafurah gas processing facilities. Jafurah is Saudi Arabia’s largest non-associated gas development, and this deal forms part of Aramco’s plan to increase gas production capacity by 60% between 2021 and 2030.

 

(Note: bcm: billion cubic metre, CCS: Carbon Capture and Storage, DES: delivered ex-ship, DOE: U.S. Department of Energy, EPC: Engineering, Procurement and Construction, EPCI: Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Installation, EPCm: Engineering, Procurement and Construction management, FEED: Front-End Engineering Design, FERC: U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, FID: Final Invest Decision, FLNG: Floating Liquified Natural Gas, FOB: free-on-board, FSRU: Floating Storage and Regasification Unit, FSU: Floating Storage Unit, HOA: Heads of Agreement, MOU: Memorandum of Understanding, SPA: Sale and Purchase Agreement)

 

 

Supprted by the Institute of Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ)