Steam Coal : A Market seeking optimism（国際セミナー）
| レポートID | 1007333 |
|---|---|
| 作成日 | 2016-03-17 01:00:00 +0900 |
| 更新日 | 2018-02-16 10:50:18 +0900 |
| 公開フラグ | 1 |
| 媒体 | セミナー・報告会資料 4 |
| 分野 | エネルギー一般 |
| 著者 | |
| 著者直接入力 | David Price |
| 年度 | 2015 |
| Vol | 0 |
| No | 0 |
| ページ数 | |
| 抽出データ | IHS ENERGYJOGMEC International SeminarPresentationSteam Coal: A Market seeking optimism16 March 2016ihs.comDavid Price, Senior Director, david.price@ihs.comc 2016 IHSCoal market overview -Grim?Globaloversupplybeyondexpectations?Globalsteamcoaldemandhasbeenweak,andformillenniumdeclinedin2015,by6%thefirsttimethis?Pricestoday,atbelow$50/tCIFARA,arethelowestsince2003?Producersarereallybeginningtofeelthepressureoftoday’slowcoalprices?foreignexchangeandoilpricemovementshavehelpedbutthereremainsaneedforrealcostcuts?somecannotdomore?Mineclosuresanddivestituresincreasinglybecomingthenormalready?Lowgasputtingpressureondark-sparkspreadsintheUK,butspreadsremainfirmlyinfavourofcoalintherestofEuropeandAsia.floorpricepricesandraisedcarbonare?Potentialfurtherc 2016 IHSforLNGglutlaterinthedecadeshouldbefocusingminds2n perspective: Almost as though the China boom never happenedSteam Coal Marker Prices200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201625020015010050US dollars per metric ton02003Landed NW EuropeLoaded S. AfricaLoaded NSWLanded S. ChinaSource: IHS Energyc(cid:3)2015(cid:3)IHSLowest on record -$25.86 for NW Europe in August 2002c 2016 IHS3What brought prices down after 2011??Overzealous investment for a China boom that petered out in 2011?Major oversupply in the US, and then Chinese markets, is still bearing down on international prices?As a result mining companies are:?Driving down costs ?Initially via volume increases, supply costs came down by roughly 20% in 2014, we are assuming another 10% in 2015?Taking voluntary administration (Chapter XI) in some cases?Beginning to close assets?Foreign exchange rate movements have made and continue to make the dollar costs of coal produced in Australia, South Africa and especially Russia much lower?The oil price collapse has helped surface miners and freighters?Freights have remained lower than expected and recovery is now at least a year awayc 2016 IHS4hat needs doing to rebalance the market??Production ?The oversupply must be addressed by the suppliers ?they cannot wait for demand growth to sort things out for them? China has to rein in over-production?Indonesia is cutting sharply?Stocks must come down ?Utility stocks are too high globally and any market revival is already being delayed by the stocks overhang?Prices must stay low?Prices today are painful for all, but not loss-making yet for the main players?Unforeseen consequences?Already happening ?mines being sold by majors are being snapped up by minors and speculators with minimal capex, which means capacity is not falling out of the market?This will keep prices at painfully low levels, even for the majors? China the exporter??All points to continuing recession through the next 2-3 yearsc 2016 IHS5Production is falling?Chinese production is estimated to have fallen by 3.2% in 2015, to 3.76bnt, and is expected to fall to 3.6bnt in 2016, another 4.2% down?That’s not enough of a fall?But China is expected to drive for pit closures in 2016 ?that will help?USA is entering its sixth year of production cuts ?and it’s needed?Down from 1,002bnst in 2014 to 918mst in 2015 and then 750-799mst in 2016 ?20% in two years?Indonesia shed approximately 100mt of production in 2015 ?more to come in 2016??Ukraine lost half its output last year ?for obvious reasons?But . . . ?Despite closures in Australia, production is holding up elsewhere, either because mines are still making money or for contractual reasons?Output in Russia may actually have risen in 2015c 2016 IHS6here is the demand growth?India ?despite setback in 2015, the outlook remains bright??Still 5-10mt/yrgrowth every year for imports?Also Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka to add volume, especially post-2020?South East Asia ?Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand all adding 1-2mt each year?Vietnam providing spectacular growth?Korea/Taiwan ?new power stations driving growth through the 2010s?Japan ?small annual increments for now but more to come in the 2020s?Middle East ?Dubai, UAE and Egypt all looking at Indian Ocean growth?Turkey ?Steady growth through the next two decades?Some North African growth as wellc 2016 IHS7?Imports of steam coal and lignite fell by a massive 67 MMt in 2015, thanks to weak demand and falling domestic prices. Early-year arrivals were also significantly impacted by new coal quality controls.? National coal demand for the full year will fell by around 3.5% in 2015 thanks to a poor performance by the industrial sector, and weaker demand from the power sector.? Chinese domestic coal market remains heavily oversupplied but both production and port and utility stocks are beginning to decline.JanFebMarMayApr201320152015 trendJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20142014 trend30,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,0000Thousand metric tonsChina ?the fallen starChina's seaborne import trends (end year)Source: IHS Energy; EIA CCS Information Service Centerc 2016 IHS c 2016 IHS8xpectations for China's seaborne imports, 2005?40200520092013201720212025202920332037250200150100MMt500Source: IHS Energy c 2015 IHS 9?Competition from hydro and domestic coal-fired power ?ultra-voltage grid is bringing power from the South West and North West and displacing imported coal?Overproduction ?China’s coal suppliers have planned for far more power demand than has happened?Coal market recession could last through 2016 and 2017?Environmental squeeze ?not as bad as painted for coal but some forced coal-fired closures near citiesc 2016 IHSWhy has China’s bubble burst so violently?India sparkled early in 2015 but has now stalled?Indian imports expected to have fallen slightly in 2015 but now lead global steam coal imports thanks to China’s collapse? Domestic production expanded strongly in 2015??Indian buyers increasing preference for higher quality coalsStable rupee, Modi-government and abundant availability of cheap coals help will keep imports strong?Power capacity continuing to grow? High coal stocks and switch to higher quality coals may reduce imports to below expectationsJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20132014 trend20142015 trend201520,00018,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,000Thousand metric tonsIndia's seaborne import trends (end year)Source: IHS Energyc 2016 IHS c 2016 IHS10he Modi government is making all the right noises?Reform underway at major state enterprises ?old guard being moved out and younger managers coming in?Distcosworking hard to squeeze out inefficiencies ?leakage being cut out and Distcosbeginning to earn margin?Gives generators a market they have a chance of sustaining profitably?Coal import prices not far from local coal prices, especially in the West?Big plans to upgrade rail network ?could benefit both imports and local coal?Big plans for local mining -can they be met completely??Still positive for importsc 2016 IHSImport prices have fallen substantially this decadeCIF India West Coast Price, 6,000 kcal/kg delivered from South Africa1112US dollars per metric ton16015014013012011010090807060502016c 2015 IHS5,0004,5004,0003,50020112012201320142015Rupees per metric tonDollars per metric ton7,0006,5006,000Rupees per metric 5,500tonSource: IHS Energyc 2016 IHSosts are still falling?Cost cutting started among higher cost suppliers in 2012/13?Approximately 10% costs savings made in 2014 ?largely through FOREX changesIn 2015 the majors started cost cutting in earnest??Costs estimated to have fallen another 10%?Miners have become leaner?Gas Oil costs have come down substantially (not in our 2014 figures) shaving an estimated $2.50 to $4 off surface mine costs?FOREX gains continued for all bar US suppliers?Colombian majors alone down by roughly 15-20%?Cost cutting will continue into 2016?Take-or-Pay remains a major problem in some countries, but the first signs of weakening in the system are emergingc 2016 IHS13FOREX has changed the game ?who loses?Impactof FOREXQ12014price2014 cost LCU2014 cost $ In the blackAustraliaColombiaS. AfricaIndonesia*77.4368.6178.7259.38E. Russia81.2452.5-70.090,360-106,424541-666501,266-745,7861,938-2,29347.5-60.045.0-53.048.0-59.041.0-61.055.0-65.0Source: IHS Energy Global SteamCoal ServiceQ1 15 price ?Roughly 17-19% down6356.461.5350.568.022015 cost, adjusted for $ depreciation In the blackQ1 2016 price?Roughly 19-22% down2016 cost, adjusted for $ depreciationIn the black?40.7-54.337.7-44.446.7-57.539.7-59.123.8-33.751.0944.6848.3342.2447.837.2-49.627.4-32.233.6-41.436.2-53.925.0-29.6c 2016 IHSc 2016 IHS14he FOREX outlook says all exporters gain against the US DollarProjected Foreign Exchange Rates: 2013 = 100360AustraliaColombiaIndonesiaRussiaSouth Africa310260210160110602040203920382037203620352034203320322031203020292028202720262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010Source: IHS Global Insightc 2016 IHS15Indonesia is taking the demand hit hardestLow grade coals versus Newcastle 6,000 13012011010090807060504030Apr-11Apr-12Apr-13Apr-14Apr-15Newcastle 6,000kc FOBNewcastle 5,500kc FOBIndonesian Subbituminous 4,900kc FOBDollars per metric ton?Lack of take-or-pay means Indonesian suppliers can get out of a bad market more easily?US dollar based contractors are being stranded by the collapsing rupiahIndonesian mining regulations are less stringent than those in Australia??Closing low quality coal differentials are taking away Indonesia’s main attraction?What will bring the Indonesians back?c 2016 IHS16Source: IHSc 2016 hort-term uncertainties?Gas:Are we heading for a gas bubble? -Probably?Can prices go low enough to challenge coal everywhere? ?Possibly?FOREX markets: Huge uncertainties in today’s turbulent market environment?China: Latest work suggests prices should begin to recover late-2017. To be reflected in international prices?India: Currently assuming moderate growth but consumption still set to rise rapidly, so what if local production fails to keep pace?Indonesia: Could shipments fall even faster in 2016??Much more decline and the market is moving quickly from oversupply to ??tightnessc 2016 IHS17Long-term Prices: Has the next coal upturn been locked in??Almost -Conflicting demand signals but still plenty of growth, 10-20mt/yrfrom 2016 through 2020?Supply growth is expected to wind down this year ?very little new mining capacity still to commission?More coal being called from 2016 on, but will it come forward at today’s prices? ?Increasingly unlikely the longer low prices are sustained?After over a year of apparently unending growth in oversupply, there are signs we are at last turning back towards shortage ?these will increase?But what response if there is a major spike???India and China are exceptionally price sensitive and will lose interest if prices are too highIndonesian suppliers used to be able to ramp up quickly if prices rise. Can they still??Costs are still falling, so the long-term marginal cost must come down as well ?current estimate is c. $75 but further checks to comec 2016 IHS18ven longer term -Lots of good intentions at Paris but did COP-21 achieve anything??Strip away the rhetoric and there’s not much meat but . . . It’s backed up by 185+ new national climate goals. These will be binding targets??The developed World has pledged serious money to support the developing World to achieve the new goals?These goals and the efforts being made will be reviewed every five years.? Negotiations are under way for how to police targets?And how to punish those not meeting targets?The World has committed unanimously to keeping temperature increase to no more than 2 degrees Centigrade?COP-21 is no real threat to coal before the 2020s, but will become increasingly so, so it is a long-term threat to coal?A change in the global Zeitgeist??Big Oil & Gas ganging up on “Dirty” Coal and the politicians are listening? Ultimately a shot in the foot?c 2016 IHS19IHS Customer Care:Americas:+1 800 IHS CARE (+1 800 447 2273); CustomerCare@ihs.com Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) 1344 328 300; Customer.Support@ihs.com Asia and the Pacific Rim: +604 291 3600; SupportAPAC@ihs.com IHSTMENERGYCOPYRIGHTNOTICEANDDISCLAIMERc2016IHS.ForinternaluseofIHSclientsonly.thisreportmaybereproduced,reused,orotherwisedistributedinanyformwithoutpriorwrittenconsent,withtheexceptionofanyinternalclientdistributionasmaybepermittedinthelicenseagreementbetweenclientandIHS.ContentNoportionofitsaccuracyandcompletenessarenotwarranted,noraretheredistributedwithIHSpermissionmustdisplayIHSlegalnoticesandattributionsofauthorship.Theinformationcontainedhereinisfromsourcesconsideredreliable,butreproducedoropinionsandanalysesthatarebaseduponit,andtotheextentpermittedbylaw,Inparticular,pleasenotethatnorepresentationorwarrantyisgivenastotheachievementorreasonablenessof,andnorelianceshouldbeplacedon,anyprojections,forecasts,estimates,orassumptions,and,duetovariousrisksanduncertainties,actualeventsandresultsmaydiffermateriallyfromforecastsandstatementsofbeliefnotedherein.ThisreportIHSandtheIHSlogoaretrademarksofIHS.IHSshallnotbeliableforanyerrorsoromissionsoranyloss,damage,orexpenseincurredbyrelianceoninformationoranystatementcontainedherein.isnottobeconstruedaslegalorfinancialadvice,anduseoforrelianceonanyinformationinthispublicationisentirelyatclient’sownrisk. |
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