ページ番号1007334 更新日 平成30年3月5日

Natural Gas Pricing : future perspectives and competitiveness with coal(国際セミナー)

レポート属性
レポートID 1007334
作成日 2016-03-17 01:00:00 +0900
更新日 2018-03-05 19:32:42 +0900
公開フラグ 1
媒体 セミナー・報告会資料
分野 エネルギー一般天然ガス・LNG
著者
著者直接入力 Jonathan Stern
年度 2015
Vol 0
No 0
ページ数
抽出データ Natural Gas Pricing: future perspectives and competitiveness with coalProfessor Jonathan SternChairman and Senior Research Fellow, OIESJOGMEC Seminar, Tokyo, March 2016 atural Gas Pricing: changes in price leveland price formationNORTH AMERICA: price level changes with established hubsEUROPE: price level changes ?hubs becoming establishedASIAN LNG: price level changes ?JCC in the process of change to what??Failure to distinguish between price level and price formation increases commercial risksThe 200808-8-14 Gas and LNG price cycleEurope Oil Indexed Contract estimate:Before concessionsAfter concessions (estimate)BrentAsian LNG SpotAverage Japan LNG PriceNBPHenry HubJul-13Jan-13Jul-12Jan-12Jul-11Jan-11Jul-10Jan-10Jul-09Jan-09Jul-08SOURCE: Platts, EIA, Argus, OIESJan-08Jul-07Jan-0725201510$/mmbtu50OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research ProgrammeOXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research Programmeul-16Jan-16Jul-15Jan-15Henry HubJul-14Jan-14SOURCES: Platts, EIA, Argus, CME, OIESJul-13Jan-13The 2014 4 ??2016 Price CycleEurope Oil Europe Oil Indexed IndexedContract Pre Contract Pre 2009 formulaWith 15% With 15% ReductionBrentAsian LNG sian LNGSpotAverage AverageJapan LNG apan LNGPriceGerman Germannn Border PriceNBP25201510$/mmbtu50OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research ProgrammeEuropean Wholesale Gas Pricing 2005-14(%)OPE = oil-indexed pricing; GOG = gas on gas/hub-based pricingOPE ===== oilllllllllllllllllllllllllllll---------iiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnndddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeexeddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd ppppppppppppppppppppprrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiiiiicccccccinggggggggggggggggggggg;;;;;;;;;;;;; GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOG ===================== ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaassssssssssss onnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn gggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaasssssssssssssssss/hubbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb----------bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaasedddddddddddddddddd pppppppppppppppppppppppppppprrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiiicccccccccccccccccccccccccingggggggggggggggSource: IGU Wholesale Gas Price Survey 2015, June 2015,Figure 4.8, p.27.Natural Gas Research Programme uropean Gas Hubs and Market CentresThere are many locations which call themselves `hubs’ but only North West, Central Europe and Italy are significanttrading locations7European Wholesale Gas Pricing 2014 (%)Source: IGU Wholesale Gas Price Survey 2015, June 2015, pp.27-28RCS (BIM)GOGRegionand approx% total European demandNorth WestEurope 50%Central Europe 10%Medit’neanEurope 30%South East Europe 10%*Hungary and Poland **mainly in ItalyOPERSP12326438885330**4(2)(6)5215*4NW Europe: Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, UK Central Europe: Austria, Czech Rep, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Switzerland Mediterranean Europe: Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Turkey SE Europe: Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, FYROM, Romania, Serbia, SloveniaOXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research ProgrammeOXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research Programmeuropean Hub Price Correlation 20122-2-142012 1HSource: Petrovich/OIESbased on Tankard data2012 2H2013 1H20132H20141H20142HPEGS-PEGNPEGS-NCGNBP-TTF100%NBP-GSLNBP-NCG90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%PEGS-GSLPEGS-ZEEPEGS-TTFPSV-CEGHPSV-PEGNPSV-ZEEPSV-GSLPSV-NCGNBP-PEGNNBP-ZEEZEE-TTFZEE-GSLZEE-NCGTTF-GSLTTF-NCGGSL-NCGPSV-TTFCEGH-PEGNPEGN-TTFPEGN-NCGCEGH-ZEECEGH-GSLCEGH-NCGPEGN-GSLPEGN-ZEECEGH-TTFPrice correlation between NWE hubs is excellentRussian Gas Prices Compared with NBP Prican Gas Pricces Compared witcPricand Oill--Linked ContractsOiOi-lSource: Henderson/OIES10OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research ProgrammeOXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research Programmekraine Purchase Prices from European Ukraine Purchase Prices from European Hubs Compared with Russian Price Offer: Compared with ith th 5October 20155-55--February 2016Russian Price ORPurchase of 2 Bcm of Russian gasSource: PlattsASIA: PROGRESS TOWARDS A MARKET PRICE1112OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research ProgrammeOXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research Programmeey Question: do Asian companies and govt’swant to replace JCC with a market price??When oil prices were at $100/bblthis was a priority because of the `Asian premium’?At $30-40/bbl?is this any longer important??Have governments recognised the destructive impact of competition on companies?If Asian countries really want to move to market pricing and competitive markets, this is the time because of market surplusOXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research ProgrammeUnprecedented Expansion of LNG Supply2014 LNG output = 246 mtPLUS 143 mtpa capacity equates to ~ 131 mtadditional productionPLUS eventual restart of Angola and Yemen ~ 12mtadditional productionTOTAL SUPPLY= 388 MT by 2018/19 (or by more than 50% compared with 2014)Source: Ledesma/OIESAbundant supply at low prices likely for some years ?perfect market conditions for competition14???Natural Gas Research Programme Nattturalll GGGaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaassssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss RRRessssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssseeeNNrice formation mechanisms which could replace JCC(cid:122)Henry Hub or European (NBP/TTF) hub prices(cid:122)Asian spot price Index (egJKM, RIM, Argus, JOE): too few cargos (at least currently) on which to base long term contracts(cid:122)Prices at an Asian hub or hubs(cid:122)`Hybrid pricing’ ?a mixture of all of these + JCC/oil+electricity+……Natural Gas Research Programme Which of these mechanisms best reflects gas supply/demand conditions in Asian countries?15US LNG export contract based on Henry Hub prices plus costsLooked `cheap’ when oil was at $100/bbl??But at oil prices below $50/bbl very difficult for offtakers to recover full cost = Henry Hub*1.15+3.50+shippingIf Henry Hub rises above $2.50/Mmbtu then exports even at short run marginal cost under threat at oil prices around $30/bbl??Henry Hub reflects fundamentals of the US marketBasing Asian prices on Henry Hub was never logical; it was a consequence of focussing on price levelnot price formationOXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research Programmepot LNG prices can be a starting point: volumes are limited but growingGlobalIn 2014, Spot LNG Cargoes Represented 24% of Global LNG Volumes'Spot Traded' LNGShort Term ContractsMedium & Long Term VolumesToal LNG Supply200620072008200920102011201220132014AsiaIn 2014, Spot LNG Cargoes Represented 24% of Asian LNG Volumes'Spot Traded' LNGShort Term ContractsMedium & Long Term VolumesToal LNG SupplyAs spot volumes grow the short term market will become deeper and more liquid and could form the basis of….200620072008200920102011201220132014Source: Rogers/OIES based on GIIGNLA Future Asian LNG Hub: Singapore, Shanghai or Tokyo?350300250200150100500300250200BCMA150BCMA100500OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research ProgrammeOXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research Programmestablishing a liquid hub takes time and a liquid hub takcommitment10 + years ?Indices derived for LT ContractsLiquid Forward Curve LiquidForwardCurveDevelopsFutures ExchangeFNon?Physical Players enterNon?PhOTC Brokered TradingOTC BroBalancing Rules & Standardised Trading ContractsBalancing Rules & StandarPrice Discovery and DisclosurePrice Discovery and DBi-Lateral Trades Bi-Lateral Trades Third Party Access to Pipelines/RegasTerminalsBased on Experience in US, UK and Continental Europe:???This could take 10 years in Asia.It requires the commitment of government, suppliers and system operators.An over-supplied market with strong competition accelerates the process.A Singapore Hub?POTENTIAL DISADVANTAGES:?A market of 6mt ?although with plans to expand significantly ?may not be large enough to set prices for Asia. (LNG Imports in 2014 1.6 mtpa).Location may be too far from the major Asian LNG markets to provide a compelling price reference; but close enough to SE Asian countriesADVANTAGES:?First mover ?current location of 24 companies operating in the Asian LNG spaceSufficiently neutral politically that others may accept it as an indexA virtual hub for SE Asia? Unlikely to develop enough depth and liquidity to be a reference for the big Asian LNG markets9OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research ProgrammeOXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research Programme??hanghai: a hub or a citygateprice?ADVANTAGES:?The location where domestic and international (LNG and pipeline) gas supplies come together in Asia’s biggest (and most rapidly expanding) gas marketResult of a price reform with a compelling market logic (but lacks market flexibility)TPA in principleto pipelines and LNG terminals??DISADVANTAGES:?Lack of transparency of supply and demand ie not genuinely “market-driven”? Overly dominated by three Chinese state-owned companies (and hence the Chinese government)Shanghai is currently a “city gate benchmark” rather than 9a hub price, but it could evolve over timeA Japanese Hub: what are the options A Japanese Hub: whand requirements?Physicalhub would be easier to startVirtualhub possible where pipeline connectivity exists Both will need:??TPA to regasterminals and pipelines UIOLI/secondary capacity market for regasMap source: The Asian Quest for LNG in a Globalising Market, IEA, 2014, OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research ProgrammeOXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research Programmeapanese Gas Liberalisation Programme(cid:122)2014: METI announces intention to create a futures market and starts monthly publication of JOE (spot) price (cid:122)2015: gas liberalisation legislation passed (after electricity)(cid:122)2017: liberalisation of retail market; third party access to LNG terminals comes into force(cid:122)2022: full separation of transportation from supply comes into forceHow quickly can competition evolve?23Japan: changes may occur quickly once legislation and market surplus take hold (cid:122)METI seeking to encourage new players into the market ?especially post electricity liberalisation(cid:122)If spot prices remain below contract prices in the 2016-20 period then pressure on utilities will grow (especially when terminals are opened)(cid:122)Contract length is shortening to around 5 years(cid:122)Hybrid (oil/HH/spot) pricing dominates short tem contracts but still no consensus on long term contract prices for new projects`Hybrid pricing’ shows continued confusion between price formation and price level9Natural Gas Research Programme Natural Gas Research Programme NaturalGasResearchProgrammeOXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research Programmesian markets do not need to adopt the Asian markets do not neesame price mechanismSINGAPORE: an LNG trading location which develops a regional price for South East AsiaCHINA: a Shanghai citygatebenchmark price reflecting domestic/international gas prices, and prices of competing fuels (fuel oil and LPG)JAPAN: a hybrid/spot JCC/JKM/HH/NBP price developed by competition which could evolve into a hubThese prices will have a relationship with each other andin time will create a “messy transition” to a converged Asian composite price; meanwhile expansion of spot pricing will put continued pressure on JCC-based long term contracts, especially if oil prices increaseOXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research ProgrammeCAN GAS COMPETE WITH COAL ?IF SO WHERE AND HOW?26as Versus Coal* Prices in India*coal price series is an average of several different grades and regional prices of coal and may be misleadingSource: Sen/OIES Gas cannotcompete with coalChina coal, gas and LPG prices for industryNatural Gas Research Programme urrraaalll GGGaaasss RRReeessseeeaaarrrccchhh PPPrrrooogggrrraaammmmmmeee uuuSource: Chen/OIESGas cannot compete on price with coal or LPG, but may be necessary to improve air qualityNatural Gas Research Programme gmpact of the EUETS (CO2 price) + national carbon price floor in the UK on the competitiveness of coal vs gas in power generationXxx£9.55£18.08Can any new coal stations be built in Europe?OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES -Natural Gas Research ProgrammeOXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES -Natural Gas Research ProgrammeSource: French governmentGas/Coal switching boundaries in the UK power marketGas-fired generation will win over coal stations (with 36% efficiency) at expected 2016-18 prices 30Source: Timera EnergyNatural Gas Research Programme Natural Gas Research Programmeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee £4.94UMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS(cid:122)Natural gas price levelshave experienced severe turbulence but the more important issue is price formation(cid:122)Market prices at hubs are established in North America and most of Europe but…(cid:122)Asian LNG prices are still largely JCC-based but this has diminishing market logic so…(cid:122)Asian hubs may evolve over the next decade and this could be accelerated by over-supply of LNG up to 2020(cid:122)Gas cannot compete on price with coal anywhere unless: there is a significant carbon price,or regulation to restrict new coal plant for air quality reasons 31THANK YOUjonathan.stern@oxfordenergy.orgNatural Gas Research Programme Natural Gas Research Programme
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2016/03/17 Jonathan Stern
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